OP-ED: “A Korean Strategy for Iraq,” by Jim Hoagland, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 16-22 April 2007, p. 5. POLITICS: “Wait and See: As patience fades in Washington, all sides agree: Success in Iraq looks years away,” by Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post National Weekly Edition, 16-22 April 2007, p. 13.

In PNM, I identified two ways out of “Black Hawk Down--the Series,” or my scenario for a failed Iraq occupation: one way was through Jerusalem, the other through a sequential processing of mini-Big-Bang-like reverberations spreading throughout the region. Obviously, this route is the longer and less desired one, but it’s one we’re certainly familiar with--the scenario I dubbed The New Berlin Wall. Unlike the Arab Yugoslavia route, which presumed an Iraq cracking up would trigger further tumultuous change elsewhere, the Wall scenario has us thinking in terms of decades--sitting on walls along Israel’s border and now within and around Iraq itself (Saudi Arabia’s already building one). Hoagland calls this the Korean model for Iraq: instead of working for the complete solution or allowing for the complete collapse, we wall off what we can stabilize from that which we cannot. Joe Biden is looking smarter by the minute. To the extent the Bush Administration goes down this path (and yes, it beats the alternative), the higher premium placed on the next administration’s ability to garner international support for long-term peacekeeping, meaning the same old, same old scenario lurks for the next president: repairing the diplomatic damage done by Bush-Cheney. Think the SysAdmin/DoEE functions won’t loom large for the next, non/anti-Bush administration? Think again.