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Recommend The elections in the Mideast (Email)

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■"Anti-Syrian Bloc Claims A Victory In Lebanese Vote: Last Round of Elections; Alliance of Ex-Premier's Son Wins Majority of Parliament Seats," by John Kifner, New York Times, 20 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Iran Moderate Says Hard-Liners Rigged Election: Investigation Demanded; Conservative Mayor and Former President Are Seen in Runoff," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 19 June 2005, p. A1.

■"Iranian Reform Party Hints That It Will Support Insider: A reluctant move to stave off a popular hard-liner," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 20 June 2005, p. A8.

■"Iran's Leaders Warn Candidate Who Charged Vote Fraud: But Rafsanjani Backs Inquiry, Too," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 21 June 2005, p. A3.

Decent signs from the two recent elections in the Big Banged Middle East.

In Lebanon, the anti-Syrian forces seem to have captured the parliament, securing the recent apparent gains of the "cedar revolution" that had little to do with "democratizing" Lebanon (already a decent democracy) and more to do with simply throwing the Syrians out after their own SysAdmin role wore out its welcome (better than civil war and better than Israeli occupation, but no longer needed now that America is committed to fostering political change in the region).

In Iran, a fairly expected outcome: vote rigged just enough to make sure run-off election would be a call between the former president Rafsanjani and the hard-core conservative (but popular) mayor of Tehran. Good news is that the reformist blocs are coalescing around Rafsanjani as the lesser of two evils. To offer a comparison, it would be like a 1968 U.S. presidential election where vote-rigging had kept a Humphrey out of contention so that the choice would come down to a Nixon versus a George Wallace. At this point, the Nixon is the better choice.

The big question is whether this Nixon goes to "China" (here, the U.S.) and what deals are possible. Many doubt Rafsanjani will deal at all, but I'm far more optimistic. Anybody who can engineer such a Nixon-like resurrection is not to be underestimated.


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