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■"Outside View: Don't Mess with China," op-ed (I assume) by William S. Lind, UPI, 21 May 2005, sent by reader Kev Hall.
Lind, Mr. Fourth Generation Warfare himself, offers this more forgiving critique of Kaplan's article:
A war with China-hot or cold-would be perhaps the greatest strategic blunder the United States could make, beyond those it has already made. The end result would be the same as that from the 20th century wars between Britain and Germany: it reduced both to second-rate powers. In the 21st century, the real victors would be the non-state forces of the Fourth Generation, who would fill the gap created by the reduction of both Chinese and U.S. power.
"Fill the gap." I like that. There's no doubt the Gap-however defined-would grow under a Sino-American war scenario. Think we'd win a Global War on Terrorism this way?
After noting that Kaplan has been writing so long and so well about the rise of non-state actors, Lind says he "gets it wrong" with his imagined Sino-American war.
You know, I have to wonder, if Lind is right, and I believe he is, maybe Kaplan argues for this war because he wants the non-state actors to rule!
Okay, okay. But you'd have to admit it would send his book sales even higher ;<)
Lind says, "Regrettably, there are influential voices in Washington that want a war with China, the sooner the better. The most likely cause is Taiwan."
Got that right, and the loudest voices wear navy blue uniforms.
Lind says China will go nuke right away in any big naval clash, and that will deter us from trying to deter them further. Sounds to me like Mutually-Assured Destruction hasn't exactly gone away with 4GW.
Darn!
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