Dateline: above the garage in rather balmy Portsmouth RI, 5 February 2005

Read my last newspapers courtesy of the Naval War College last night. Had been getting access to paper daily copies of the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post (the latter came in the mail several days late).

I already get the Post online in the daily email format, which is great, frankly. And I get the Times at home by paper subscription. So I think the only real decision is the Journal: paper or electronic? I hear you can do the Journal online for less than $100 a year, which sounds too good to be true, but if it is, I think I'll go that way.

Here's the catch:

On the health front

Story in Post ("Foreign Drugs Approved For Anti-AIDS Program: Decision Means Treatment for More," by Shankar Vedantam, 26 Jan 05, p. A10) catches my eye, because it's further sign that Old Core America comes around to New Core Brazil's push that it be able, along with other New Core powers (China, India, South Africa), to produce cheaper generic drugs for use in dealing with the AIDS crisis in the Gap. Now the US decides it can buy these same generic drugs from such New Core producers for its own $15B program of aid to HIV sufferers inside the Gap.

Nice, and it actually made everyone involved feel happy.

The other health story is scarier, and of course involves the always-almost-imminent-but-when-in-the-hell-is-it-actually-going-to-show-up Avia Flu ("As SE Asian Farms Boom, Stage Set for a Pandemic: Conditions Ripe for Spread of Bird Flu," by Alan Sipress, WP, 5 Feb 05, p. A1). Not quite sure why this story was written, because it contains absolutely no new news, just the general noting of a long-term trend in Asia of there being more farms. Real story, is that these farms are becoming more connected to the global economy, as are the regions, so travel issues and contagion possibiliites loom large. Biggest point: "governments in the region lack the money, manpower and, at times, political will to enforce these [tough safety] requirements on an industry that has become a vital component of economic growth."

To me, that's economics getting ahead of politics, and connectivity getting ahead of security. When such rule-set gaps appear, System Perturbations rise in their potential to harm us all--or at least force a massive rule set reset.

Iraq seems like a different place after this election

First, you can't help but be taken aback by the front-page story with photo in the NYT on the 2nd of Feb ("Iraqis Who Died While Daring to Vote Are Mourned as Martyrs," by Edward Wong). If hearing that word used in that manner doesn't tug at your heart strings, then you need to check your passport and see if you're really an American.

Second story somewhat gratifying and somewhat creepy ("Iraqi Police Use Kidnappers' Videos to Fight Crime: Captured and Cowed, Insurgents Seem Far Less Powerful," by Christine Hauser, NYT, 5 Feb 05, p. A1). If this isn't some clever Fourth Generation Warfare (okay, it's just fighting video with video), then what is? It seems weird to us because America is a post-modern, post-shame culture, but Iraq is neither, so it has impact there. Cooler is the idea of a "most wanted" crime show for Iraqi TV based on American versions. People there have always wanted one thing first: law and order. You can give it to 'em, but you also have to show it to 'em.

As one Iraqi official said, "Because of their confessions and the disgusting things they did, we have reached our limit. There is no more patience."

Well said.

Third story ("Iraq's Sunnis Rethink Strategy: Concilliatory Line Carries Conditions," by Anthony Shadid, WP. 5 Feb 05, p. A1) suggests that at least some big portions of the Sunni population see the writing on the wall with this election. That was always the Bush administration's plan: make it seem inevitable. It seems to be working.

The Big Bang keeps banging

I love these stories, because if Bob Geldorf is just so f--king bored with Africa, I reached that point with most Middle Eastern regimes a long time ago.

First one focuses on Syria ("Religious Surge Alarms Secular Syrians: Islam's Clout Among Frustrated Youth Challenging Governments Across Mideast," by Scott Wilson, WP, 23 Jan 05, p. A21). Same old same old: authoritarian governments don't provide for the masses, a youth bulge is working its way through the system, and these pissed off young people are turning to the only alternative they have at hand: radical Islam. This scares secular Syria. Boo hoo.

The secular middle class are starting to speak up. That's good. And they accuse the government of cynically coopting the hotheaded youth in order to deflect anger away from the incompetent government and toward those "evil" Americans occupying Iraq. Guess how long works? As one Iraqi newspaper journalist said, "It's a temporary cooperation. Nowadays, they have the same enemy: the United States. But once the U.S. soldiers leave Iraq, what happens to us?"

This ride-the-tiger phenomenon will continue to haunt Arab regimes more and more in coming months, and it was all by design. The Big Bang keeps banging.

Better version occurs in Egypt ("As Egypt Struggles, Prime Minister Tries Tough Love: Nazif Shakes Up Economy By Freezing Public Jobs, Cutting Tazes and Tariffs; A Suggestion on Birth Control," by Karby Leggett, WSJ, 3 Feb 05, p. A1): here we're talking about a Mubarek who's old enough and scared enough and just smart enough to appoint a vigorous, smart, reformist, no-nonsense PM named Ahmed Nazif. This guy is moving the pile like nobody's business--at least by the standards of Egyptian politics for the last . . . oh . . . 24 years of "emergency rule."

Nazif is working the usual Arab package: "soaring unemployment, hidebound bureaucracy and rampant corruption." Plus he's got a youngish 70 million citizens and no oil to speak of. So what you do if you want to stay in power all these years? Well, the modern pharoahs have "kept private business on a tight leash, discouraging trade and promoting state-owned companies."

And they wonder why Egypt's economy sucks and totally belongs in the Gap . . ..

Nazif is breaking some china, and it's fun to watch:

He introduced the most far-reaching economic changes in Egypt's modern history, cutting customs tariffs by 40%, signing a trade deal with Israel and the U.S., and chopping income taxes in half. Now he's planning more painful steps. He wants to slash the government payroll and scale back subsidies on everyday goods.

Hold that question. Yes. Yes. Yes.

The Big Bang keeps banging.

The Axis of Evil is down to two wheels

Another story about our good friend Kim selling nukes etc. to anyone who'll buy ("Uranium Testing Said To Indicate Libya-Korea Link: Fears on Possible Sales," by David E. Sanger and William J. Broad, NYT, 2 Feb 05, p. A1). So him we're going to negotiate with?

Second story ("Rice Says Military Action Against Iran Not on Agenda," by Robin Wright, WP, 5 Feb 05, p. A12) seems to indicate that Rice, while not promising war any time soon, has decided she's going to be bad cop at State to go along with Rumsfeld's bad cop. Hmm. That's helpful. I mean, we have so many levers to pull with Iran, surely we can stop them from acquiring the bomb after all these years of no trade, no relations, no nothing. And Rice goes out of her way to signal she's not interested in carrots. She wants Iran to stop the program in exchange for . . . ? U.S. military domination in the region right on Iran's eastern and western borders? Nice offer. I'm sure it'll work wonders. And I'm sure this principled stance will convince Iran to stop supporting the insurgency in Iraq and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Yes, I'm sure the mullahs will give us the peace we seek in both situations. I mean, look at what we're offering!