■"Southeast Asia Urged to Form Economic Bloc" by Jane Perlez, New York Times, 29 November 2004, p. A8.

The Association of Southeast Asia Nations, aka ASEAN, are once again talking bold on economic integration. They did so previously following the Asian Flu of 1997-98, but back then the fear was subsequent financial panics. Now the threat perception is different. As the new leader of Indonesia declared, "Our main challenge today is to deepen our economic integration. Why? Two words: India and China."

The association is signing a new trade pact with China to remove tariffs on merchandise by 2010, and there's a long-term plan to create an EU-like economic community by 2020. My guess is that it will happen before then and it'll be driven by China's continued rise. By 2020, as I predicted in PNM, I expect to see not only a NATO-like Asian military alliance, but an Asia-wide EU-like entity. For that to happen, ASEAN will have to move much faster than planned, and, judging by this article, it sounds like that's a growing realization shared by several of its leaders.