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■"Japanese Offical Warns of Fissures in North Korea," by James Brooke, New York Times, 22 November 2004, p. A3.
Hereís the shocking opening paragraphs:
After weeks of reports from North Korea of defecting generals, antigovernment posters and the disappearance of portraits of the country's ruler, the leader of Japan's governing party warned Sunday of the prospects of "regime change" in North Korea.
"As long as Chairman Kim Jong Il controls the government, we have to negotiate with him, but it is becoming more doubtful whether we will be able to achieve anything with this government," said Shinzo Abe, acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, on Fuji TV, referring to talks on North Korea's abductions of Japanese in the 1970's. "I think we should consider the possibility that a regime change will occur, and we need to start simulations of what we should do at that time."
By breaking an unspoken taboo on talking publicly about "regime change" in North Korea, the powerful Japanese politician underlined a feeling spreading in the region that cracks are starting to show in the Kim family's control over North Korea after nearly 60 years.
Actually, the only shocking thing about the quote is that the Japanese up and said it!
Anecdotal evidence says more than 100 North Korean generals has fled the country, or roughly 10% of the military elite. What does that tell you about the situation at the top?
It tells me that insiders can be had for a song.
Hereís the kicker: ìoutside analysts are speculating that the personality cult around "Dear Leader" is being curbed, either to advance painful economic reforms or to head off a military coup fomented by China.î
If thatís the rumor, you have to wonder whether or not Beijing is ready to deal on Kim. If theyíre ready, the question becomes, What do we offer?
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