Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 1:45AM OPINION: "Obama's Befuddling Afghan Policy," by Leslie H. Gelb, Wall Street Journal, 22 September 2009.
The key bit:
Build alliances to contain the Taliban and other regional extremists. Focus on India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, China, and yes, even Iran . . ..
The establishment comes around, slowly but surely.
Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 1:43AM WORLD NEWS: "Russia Revives Privatization: Putin Signals Shift After Years of Increased Government Control," by Alexander Kolyandr and William Mauldin, Wall Street Journal, 30 September 2009.
Wow, that took sooooo long.
Where are all my hysterics who wanted me to give Russia the boot out of the Core last August?
Ah yes, we gave them the boot!
We remain a freak-out-free zone here, Sean and I.
Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 1:10AM ARTICLE: France Toughens Stance on Iran, By Edward Cody, Washington Post, October 1, 2009
The French are somewhat amazing: when you need tough, they disappear, and when tough is pointless, they're right up front. Amazing how they come up with these leaders!
Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 1:07AM ARTICLE: Georgia Set Off War, Probe Finds, By Philip P. Pan, Washington Post, October 1, 2009
Ah, I can't wait to hear all the bloggers' mea culpas regarding the EU report on the start of the Russian-Georgian war.
Turns out we shouldn't have all become Georgians then.
Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 1:00AM ARTICLE: U.S., Cuba Held Extended Talks, By Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, September 30, 2009
I like the quiet approach on Cuba. Also the broad engagement.
The good stuff usually goes on quietly.
Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 12:59AM ARTICLE: U.S. Envoy's Outreach to Sudan Is Criticized as Naive, By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, September 29, 2009
Gration I know something about. He is not naive.
I see good logic in having some sort of relationship in place before the 2011 plebiscite (that may divide the country in two chunks) approaches.
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 2:56PM ARTICLE: Swine Flu Surge Closes Schools, Tests Hospitals, By Rob Stein, Washington Post, September 27, 2009
As we near the predicted peak in mid-October, the testing of the system is well underway.
News from the homefront:
-->The Mei Mei (youngest) goes down on Monday with high-fever/cough combo, but is fever free all Wednesday and back in school Thursday.
-->next up is Jerome (second youngest), who looks and feels a bit weird on Monday and exhibits a slight fever Tuesday night. Jerry is held home Wed and Thursday and may have his no-fever day Friday, so return to school next Monday.
-->I started feeling distinctly weird Wed night, but can't tell if I'm heading down this path now or not. Primary caregiver spouse shows no signs (busy with firing off latest adoption-process papers and we get within month of waiting-list status in our latest try). Teenagers scream every time one of the younger ones gets anywhere near them, scaring them off. For now, they escape. But with H1N1 clearly in the local grade schools, hard to see how HS's will escape.
Our impressions to date: awfully mild period of suffering, compared to past flu.
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 8:07AM Wrote sometime in last week that I expect Rio to win the Olympic bid for 2016, but I think it got stuck in the queue (or maybe I'm remembering a comment).
Anyway, pretty easy call to make: US has had plenty, London just got it so Madrid less sexy, and Japan's been done recently enough with Sapporo. Brazil is rising star and Games have never been held in South America.
Record of all Games being in current Core membership stays intact.
Good news for US viewers--no time delay required!
[Ed: Here's Tom's post which he sent to me Oct 1st at 4:18pm]
ARTICLE: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/28/world/americas/28brazil.html, By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO, New York Times, September 27, 2009
I do expect Brazil to win because I expect many in the Olympic community want its rise to be codified in this manner, just like China's.
Plus, South America has never hosted.
Get into the Core, host the Olympics--as I noted in Blueprint.
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:32AM OP-ED: Reagan's Missile Defense Triumph, By Andrew Nagorski, Washington Post, September 25, 2009
A hilarious claim that now, suddenly, both sides of the American political ledger agree on the need for missile defense.
The truth is, the Reaganite view remains discredited: Star Wars--or the space-based defenses combined with later-stage ground-based interceptors--is not the way to go. It's too hard, too costly, and too unreliable. When I say missile defense boondoggle, this is what I refer to.
Plenty of experts and politicians on both sides have long preferred the theater/tactical-based stuff as being superior. That's why those programs have proceeded and succeeded with little to no controversy.
THAT view won again with Obama's decision, and the Reaganite legacy lost again.
On long-range missiles, in my mind, MAD remains the way to go. Trying to build some impenetrable shield is a chimera of the most destabilizing order (Reagan's fantastic and wrongheaded dream, now translated into Obama's similarly goofy dream of eradicating all nuclear weapons). On short- and intermediate-range, you go after them aggressively with everything plus the kitchen sink. Why? The shorter stuff will much more likely be used in conventional conflicts, so we must have a clear capacity to deny their desired impact (think of the Patriots in the first Gulf War). There is no dream of an impenetrable shield here, just logical covering of a particular bet likely to be placed in future conflicts.
As for the classic nuke war missiles, let that sleeping dog lie with MAD. Screwing with that over Iran makes no sense. Iran can be liquidated--as in, wiped off the map by either us or Israel. But Israel and the region need reasonable additional deterrence on Iran's shorter missiles, given their high likelihood of use in any conventional fight.
You disaggregate the threat accordingly, and do not follow this guy's odd assertion that--in effect--all missile defense is the same dream.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:25AM OP-ED: Cassandras of Climate, By PAUL KRUGMAN, New York Times, September 27, 2009
Key line: "The really big rise in global temperature probably won't take place until the second half of this century, but there will be plenty of damage long before then."
There are several big waves coming: global middle class, resource pressures, political pluralism, population topping off, Singularity on life extensions, and this.
Best to juggle them all in your minds, avoiding too much fascination with any one.
When I want to calm my mind, this is where I go to ponder things.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:23AM ARTICLE: Cuba Pins Hopes On New Farms Run for Profit
Run, By William Booth, Washington Post, September 28, 2009
Remember this is how Deng started out. The great unraveling is underway.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:20AM OP-ED: Go All-In, Or Fold, By Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, September 27, 2009
Using the Leviathan to topple a government is typically an easy call. Going all-in with the SysAdmin? That's the hard one.
McChrystal's 66-page confidential assessment makes the case for a far more expansive counterinsurgency mission, one that would involve sending more troops and civilian reconstruction personnel to Kandahar and other key population centers to improve security, governance and economic opportunities for Afghans. Although the general never used the term in the assessment, his strategy amounts to a comprehensive nation-building endeavor.
Remember when everyone said Iraq would be a one-off? Well, now we'll see about that prediction.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:16AM ARTICLE: TURKEY: IS ANKARA SET TO BECOME A VITAL PLAYER IN REVAMPED US ANTI-MISSILE SHIELD?, Yigal Schleifer, EURASIA INSIGHT, 9/25/09
Key opening:
Speculation is building in Turkey over whether Ankara will play a part in a revamped US missile-defense network, one designed mainly to contain Iran. Conjecture is being fueled by two recent developments: the Obama administration's decision to scrap the construction of an anti-missile shield in Central Europe, and Turkey's own announcement that it intends to purchase its first missile-defense system.
Although it's not clear if Ankara's plan to buy a missile defense system is being coordinated with the United States, experts say the purchase is an indication that -- despite its warming relations between Turkey and Iran, and Turkish officials' promotion of a diplomatic solution to the question of Iran's nuclear program -- Turkey is not taking any chances regarding its neighbor's intentions. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
"There is an unstated rivalry [between Turkey and Iran]. They are two powerful states in the region and each one has its own strategy and Turkey now has one of playing an active role in the region," says Sami Kohen, a columnist with the daily Milliyet and a veteran observer of Turkish foreign policy.
"Turkey thinks that there are a lot of common interests with Iran. There are improving trade, economic, and energy ties. There has been a period of normalization, which has now been followed by a period of closer ties," Kohen continued. "Nevertheless, people in responsible positions who want to see Turkey grow as a key regional player believe there is a rivalry with Iran."
Remember this when a nuclear Turkey finally sits down with Iran and Israel and--possibly--Saudi Arabia at the table.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:12AM OP-ED: What in the world is China?,
By Nina Hachigian, Los Angeles Times, September 30, 2009
The key description:
Today, China has joined every major international organization to which it is eligible and signed more than 300 international treaties. It has even had a hand in creating new regional groups. "They are acting like the new us," a U.S. official told me. They prepare, send huge delegations to summits and carefully cultivate diplomatic capital.
Ah, but the more you join, the more you are joined.
Don't buy into linear projections of Chinese global influence strictly via soft power. With power comes responsibility, and with responsibility comes a need to defend with more than words.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:10AM OP-ED: Forget the Nukes, By Robert Kagan, Washington Post, September 30, 2009
Opening:
The past two weeks have been a big success for the rulers in Tehran, despite what many in the United States and Europe may think. The Obama administration, the Europeans and the media have been obsessively focused on Iranian missile launches and secret enrichment facilities, on Russia's body language, and on the likely success or failure of Thursday's talks in Geneva. What the world has not focused on is the one thing Iran's rulers care about: their own survival.
Prescription for said diagnosis:
It would be better if the administration focused on the regime's instability and ignored the nukes.
Then, however, Kagan places his faith in "crippling" sanctions--a classic disconnect tactic.
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:07AM ARTICLE: Militant Group Is Intact After Mumbai Siege, By LYDIA POLGREEN and SOUAD MEKHENNET, New York Times, September 29, 2009
ARTICLE: India and Pakistan Fail to Restart Negotiations, By NEIL MacFARQUHAR, New York Times, September 27, 2009
India will turn on us with the next Mumbai-like strike. It'll feel like our security partnership is meaningless if we can't police Pakistan better, despite all the military assistance.
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:03AM OP-ED: Lifting Iran's Nuclear Veil, By GARY MILHOLLIN and VALERIE LINCY, New York Times, September 29, 2009
ARTICLE: Iran's Statement May Offer Window Into Nuclear Efforts, By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER, New York Times, September 30, 2009
Compelling logic.
What I said in Great Powers: expect all the stories to come out eventually and expect them all to be true.
But just because we move off the self-delusion of stopping Iran's efforts with sanctions, there is no logic in shifting that self-delusion to air strikes.
We made our choices under Bush (I agreed with both), but now we live with those choices.
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 1:00AM ARTICLE: Co-ed classes under fire at Saudi university, AP, Sept . 30, 2009
You go, King, go!
(Thanks: Jeff Jennings)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 12:47AM ARTICLE: $26bn projects 'to turn UAE into logistics hub', by Soren Billing, ArabianBusiness.com, Wednesday, 09 September 2009
Good sign. UAE continues its wonderfully ambitious trajectory to be connector-of-choice for the region WRT globalization's nets.
(Thanks: jarrod myrick)
Friday, October 2, 2009 at 12:43AM ARTICLE: China wary of 'trade wars', By Jon Ward, Washington Times, September 9, 2009
Again, the Chinese thwart our own instincts toward trade stupidity:
"Trade wars between China and the United States are the last thing that our two countries need right now," said Xie Feng, deputy chief of mission at the Chinese Embassy in Washington.
Does that mean we won't press every case to the max possible advantage? Are you kidding?
Same will be true for China.
But no, their side isn't seeking some self-destructive path, even as Obama has--to date--been fairly weak on free trade (his one great failing, in my mind).
(Via WPR Media Roundup)
