We need clever leadership

ARTICLE: In Scramble for Cash, Pakistan Turns to China's Deep Reserves, By Anthony Faiola and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, October 16, 2008; Page A01

Pakistan, a faltering democracy of sorts, gets in trouble financially and to whom does it turn? China, the Saudis and the UAE, three big non-Western holders of dollars right now. Not exactly the league of democracies to the rescue, huh? And yet, is this not a huge help at a very dangerous time?

We head into a time of great realism, meaning we need cautious and calculating and clever leadership--not hair-trigger-pullers.

The Petraeus outlook

ARTICLE: Petraeus Mounts Strategy Review, By Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post, October 16, 2008; Page A12

Again, we see the logic of a serious and comprehensive review (involving lots of regional experts) from the good general that will lead to a comprehensive approach. The big difference here is the scope of his work and authority has changed from just one conflict to the theater, thus the references in the piece to working with neighbors and leveraging their assets. For Afghanistan, that will mean Pakistan, obviously, but also Iran.

Naturally, doubts are raised that any CENTCOM boss can command such control over U.S. diplomacy and development issues, in addition to defense, but this is just Petraeus instinctively reaching for the reins of all of the 3 'D's.

Given his stature and the prominence of the conflict and the fact that this review will be presented to a new president come February, meaning it'll catch a new administration right at its start, I give Petraeus a good chance of obtaining a fairly large and free writ for action.

A favorite NYC landmark building

Primarily because of the intersecting tunnels for traffic--like the carved-out redwood.

More Amory

PODCASTS: Amory Lovins in Six Parts (begin here), Social Innovation Conversations, 03-26-2007

Phil Windley sends in this link as a follow-up to Tom's recent mention of Amory Lovins. Phil says 'A little long winded but it held my interest like a lot of things haven't.'

Core and Gap: Assumed

CAF STRATEGIC PLAN: Securing the High Ground: Dominant Combat Air Force for America, USAF, 2008

An Air Force reader sends this in noting that Tom makes an appearance almost verbatim right up front. Sure enough (p3 as printed, p9 of the pdf):

The lack of stability, security and integration of former Third World, or non-integrating “gap” nations and regions into the larger functioning “core” of peaceful, progressive states

I like how Core and Gap are thrown in almost off-handedly, like everyone knows about them.

What's dead? War without the everything else

OP-ED: Liquidating the Empire, by Patrick J. Buchanan, Human Events, 10/14/2008

Trenchant piece, as they say.

But Buchanan's take on "empire" is really all that dies here. For those who perceive America's main power in, and primary impact on, this world in military terms, the end of the world is clearly near.

But what really dies here? Unilateralism, go-it-alone-ism, "primacy," and the chimera that a "league of democracies" or the West is a sufficient quorum to rule the world.

Globalization comes with rules, not a ruler. Those rules, while under constant revision, apply to all. Our exceptionalism is path-breaking, not treaty-busting.

So all that really dies here is the neocon dreams and the bankruptcy of this administration's simplistic foreign policy.

Reality is mostly made up of economics in this world of our creating. Some of us just didn't get the memo, but more got the eviction notice.

(Thanks: Elmer Humes)

A huge but necessary step, long predicted

ARTICLE: China May Let Peasants Sell Rights to Farmland, By EDWARD WONG, New York Times, October 10, 2008

Not exactly some sign of China "rejecting" markets due to our financial troubles.

(Thanks: Jarrod Myrick)

The Map shows shared vulnerability

POST: Wall Street Journal Graphic Shows Economic Domino Effect, By Matt O'Hern, Marketing Shift, October 13, 2008

Matt makes the link between a WSJ graphic yesterday and the Map:

The correspondence is uncanny, no?

Tom says:

The map continues to prove out: connectivity naturally begets shared vulnerability.

Bear market reins in resurgent Russian bear

ARTICLE: The Financial Crisis May Curtail Kremlin Plans for Modernizing Armed Forces, By Pavel Felgenhauer, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Thursday, October 9, 2008

Great point. Russia will be forced to spend a lot just to maintain and replace their nuke arsenal. Price of great power-dom.

(Thanks: Mohamed Ibn Guadi)

South Africa self-destructs

ARTICLE: 'Between staying and going, The Economist, Sep 25th 2008

South Africa has long been plagued by way too much crime, and all indications are that it's getting even worse.

It is ironic that, as Africa seems to be connecting nicely in many places, its one great source of economic connectivity--its towering economic power--seems determined to self-destruct.

Such is the danger of single-party rule where corruption runs rampant. Every revolutionary/national liberation group like the ANC runs into this crisis of power in the second generation (post-Mandela). The ANC is clearly handling it badly.

(Thanks: Robert Johnson)

An important milestone in Iraq's economic connectivity

ARTICLE: "Shell Opens an Office in Baghdad After a 36-Year Absence," by Sam Dagher, New York Times, 23 September 2008.

For a stretch a couple years back, I did my PNM/BFA brief for the near entirety of the Royal Dutch/Shell global management cohort (splitting the briefs between New York and Beijing). Every time, I asked them what it would take to get them back inside Iraq. A certain baseline of security and the upside of serious potential, all replied.

But here's the big point they made: when we leave, we leave for a long time, so when we return it'll be a big deal.

So this is a big deal.

Do you believe there's a silver lining?

COVER STORY: THE ECONOMY: There Is a Silver Lining, By Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek, Oct 11, 2008

Nice piece by Fareed.

For years in the old PNM brief, I did the bit about America "living large" (with sound clip of Mike Myers as Austin Powers screaming out, "Yeah! Baby, yeah!") and I'd make the requisite noise about needing to correct our overconsumption relative to population (focusing primarily on energy and money and environmental damage).

I would never get much of a response on this, so after about 4 years, I yanked the slide, figuring the trend would continue until it could not continue anymore. I just got nowhere with that gentle hectoring.

When you started reading about foreign powers considering the switch from dollars to euros, you could tell the end was approaching, as the market was finally offering a natural balancing mechanism beyond collusional efforts of Western great powers to center the dollar somewhere near its desired/real price (Plaza Accord 85 and "reverse Plaza" of 95).

The good upshot? While we got overleveraged, we did provide the global economy with a lot of liquidity and demand when it truly needed it over the past 20 years.

Now, that economy has simply grown beyond the capacity of relying on just the dollar as a reserve currency, like the West/US economy grew beyond the restriction of gold-backing in the early 1970s.

So a good and necessary step, whose welcomed byproduct is reining in our spendthrift ways.

Thus the need for many new allies...

The continuing connectivity/content tradeoff in the Middle East

ARTICLE: "Young and Arab in Land of Mosques and Bars," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 22 September 2008.

ARTICLE: "Arab TV Tests Societies' Limits With Depictions of Wine, Sex and Equality," by Robert F. Worth, New York Times, 27 September 2008.

Great big article on the subversive presence in the Gulf that is the UAE and Dubai in particular. While it was reasonably more quiet during Ramadan when I was there, you could sense the difference very clearly. Unlike going to, say, Cairo, in Dubai you could feel the how young men and women behaved differently, like you were in another world.

Nice bit from one transplanted Egyptian:

"I was more religious in Egypt," Mr. Galal said, taking a drag from yet another of his ever-burning Marlboros. "It is moving too fast here. In Egypt there is more time, they have more control over you. It's hard here. I hope to stop drinking beer; I know it's wrong. In Egypt, people keep you in check. Here, no one keeps you in check."

That's what you get with 80% of your population being expats drawn from 200 nationalities—the New New Amsterdam of the Gap. Bring on the Glorious Revolution!

Others say it's the Vienna of the cold war—"playground for all sides."

Tell me this doesn't sound familiar:

Dubai dazzles, but it also confuses. It appears to offer a straight deal—work hard and make money. It is filled with inequities and exploitation. It is a land of rules: no smoking, no littering, no speeding, no drinking and driving. But it also dares everyone to defy limitations.

It is a place that offers the possibility for reinvention.

Subversive indeed.

The more such connectivity emerges, expect more Mickey Mouse fatwas—no pun intended.

I was being optimistic on Afghanistan in my upcoming Good article

WORLD NEWS: "U.S. Expects Afghan Violence to Worsen: Commanders See Taliban Preparing Winter Offensive," by Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2008.

In the Good article on McCain v Obama, I cited the issue of how far the Taliban might advance before winter sets in across Afghanistan.

But our military is now talking about a sustained winter effort by the Taliban to keep the insecurity up—a lot more fighting than in previous years.

Barnett Rubin predicts a winter offensive in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

I stand corrected.

More like 5 foot-nine

EUROPE: "Russia's armed forces: advancing, blindly; A more aggressive Russian army is still no match for NATO, but is strong enough to scare some neighbors," The Economist, 20 September 2008.

WORLD NEWS: "Moscow Will Boost Defense Spending to $50 Billion: Conflict in Georgia Exposed Deficiencies Of Aging Arsenal," by Andrew Osborn, Wall Street Journal, 20-21 September 2008.

WORLD NEWS: "U.S. Engages Russia While Intensifying Rhetoric: Administration Keeps Options Open On Nuclear Pact," by Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, 23 September 2008.

ARTICLE: "Russia Strikes Oil Deal With Chavez and Plans Modernization Of Military," by Ellen Barry, New York Times, 27 September 2008.

ARTICLE: "Long Scourge of Somali Seas, Pirates Provoke World Powers," by Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, 27 September 2008.

A sensible read on Putin (see the always clear-sighted C.J. Chivers in the October Esquire profile) is hard to come by nowadays, but a sober analysis of Russia's generally unimpressive military performance in Georgia is even more required. The top Economist piece delivers this nicely:

The Russians lost their most senior commander in the field because, by their own accounts, they did not know where the Georgian units were. Russian forces lacked surveillance drones and night-vision equipment. Radios worked poorly, and commanders resorted to using mobile phones. Troops barely co-ordinated with the air force, which lost several jets (among them a Tu-22 strategic bomber) and dropped mostly old "dumb" bombs rather than modern smart ones. The wonder is how the Russians routed the Georgians so swiftly.

Obviously, when rebranding your military, you want to pick a weak opponent, like say Spain in the 1890s.

But it's hard to improve your military when one-third of your defense budget is embezzled or misspent.

When Russia sends its big naval platforms abroad, a tug usually accompanies.

But some bright spots: specifically a slow shift to a professional, non-conscript force. Then again, it was the pros who invaded Georgia. But when most of your weapons date back to the 1960s and 70s, such is war.

So big surprise, Moscow will boost defense spending. Not exactly our $700 billion, as the "huge" uptick increases Russia's defense budget to a whopping $50B.

Taking to friends at the Center for Naval Analysis, the Russian tendency to build instantly old platforms persists.

As respected analyst Pavel Felgenhauer puts it, "Defense spending has multiplied since 2000 . . . but the results have been really meager."

To our government/military's strategic credit, we continue to engage Russia over nukes and other security cooperation—very quietly:

American diplomats say engagement with Russia is critical because its involvement is central to any efforts to combat weapons proliferation and terrorism. The administration has rebuffed calls from politicians, including Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain, to expel Moscow from the Group of Eight forum of leading nations.

So no, I won't be getting all jacked over the Chavez play, which I find more pathetic than threatening—Chavez's brag that about a "colossus being born" notwithstanding.

Still, you must acknowledge, as expert Aleksandr Golts argues, that "Russia wants to behave as a great power" even as "the existing Russian armed forces are only a shadow of the Soviet ones."

Meanwhile, we can thank those Somali pirates for reminding us of common global security interests. PIRATES! Running the world again! Arrrrrgh!

Get me Johnny Depp on the phone!

The world keeps on slipping, slipping, slipping . . . into the future

SPECIAL REPORT: "A bigger world: A special report on globalisation," The Economist, 20 September 2008.

Slew of cool charts showing the rising profile of BRIC companies.

The judgment that "emerging markets are producing examples of capitalism at its best."

YES, The Economist ACTUALLY SAID THAT!

Very sensible counter-fad article on "why rich-world multinationals think they can stay ahead of the newcomers." So please go easy on the post-Western, post-American buzz, because it's been predicted before many times.

Final bit is dead on: "Opportunity knocks, as long as the protectionists don't spoil it," with a great citation of the Baumol book, Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, which I use in Great Powers.

Catching up with technology

TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY: 1) "The meek shall inherit the web: Computing: In future, most new internet users will be in developing countries and will use mobile phones. Expect a wave of innovation," 2) "Gas, gas, quick boys: Chemical sensors: A new nanodevice able to detect low concentrations of chemical agents could help to thwart terrorist gas attacks," and 3) "Following the crowd: The internet: The idea of 'crowdsourcing," or asking crowds of internet users for ideas, is being tried out in some unusual quarters," The Economist, 6 September 2008.

Three ideas I've been waiting on. Decent descriptions found here.

1) Forget one-laptop-per-child, because it's all about mobile phones. Even my kids know that one.

2) The coming ubiquitous sensing environment.

3) Asking the crowd for inputs. Remember my "55th State" article for Esquire? Well, you all helped write that one. In many ways, a slew of readers were all research assistants on Great Powers, which is why I thanked so many in the acknowledgments.

Why this election must get dirty

SITE: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

Obama's projected electoral total is at high point, so he will be accused of all things possible as this window narrows (like Cindy insinuating that he's trying to kill her son by voting no on the same war-funding bill that McCain also voted against). Hopefully, the anger-stoking won't reach a point where his life is in danger, but McCain's campaign needs this anger to turn the tide.

A very risky business that doesn't exactly put country first.

I can't wait for this sort of era to pass.

Yesterday's column.

A nice profile of Amory Lovins

BRAIN SCAN: "The frugal cornucopian: Amory Lovins began making the case for resource efficiency decades ago, long before it became fashionable; now things are going his way," The Economist, 6 September 2008.

Nice start:

If anybody should be on top of the world today, it is Amory Lovins … because today's interrelated energy and climate difficulties have at last made the world see the importance of resource efficiency, energy innovation and holistic design—principles that he has been advocating for nearly four decades.

His radical idea is simple: economic growth does not need to occur in lock-step with increased use of energy.

A rival describes him as "60% pure genius and about 40% snake-oil salesman," as if this is odd for a visionary.

Better description:

When Amory makes a prediction, don't stand close and scrutinize the small print. Take a step back and see his broader vision, and you will find that he usually points the way forward as no one else can.

Nice.

His main source of optimism this time around? Most of the innovation is being funded privately, not by the government. No Manhattan Projects for Amory, thank you very much.

Why Amory is truly a grand strategist:

Surely it is frustrating to be ignored or pilloried for years, only to have his accusers co-opt his ideas? Mr Lovins smiles. "Yes, my ideas do sometimes have a slow burn or a decade or two before they catch on," he admits.

The real deal, folks.

North Korean hope

ARTICLE: U.S. Drops North Korea From Terrorism List, By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, October 12, 2008; Page A01

One hopes this step with North Korea involves more possibility than just the promised cessation of its nuke program. Let's hope this is an act of good faith regarding the post-Kim regime's possible emergence from isolation.

Otherwise, this smacks of a desperate give-away when we should be pressuring the regime on its liquidation.