Tom's column this week

China's males: looking for war in all the wrong places

Strategists prefer to project, futurists love to extrapolate, and demographers will tell you their data are pure destiny. But, just like history, the future tends to repeat itself by consistently delaying our dreams (my long-overdue flying car) while constantly denying our doomsdays (remember overpopulation or the impending ice age?).

Humanity confounds us prognosticators primarily by being so inventively responsive to all the grand challenges that we so deterministically throw its way. Nowhere will we witness such innovation more in coming decades than in China, slated by confident futurists - take your pick - for both world domination and suicidal self-destruction.

Tom notes:

Original: they can go abroad and . . . you know . . . marry a broad.

Changed to: they can go abroad and, you know, marry overseas.

I am somewhat surprised the humor didn't pass. Is a "broad" considered that slanderous that "family newspapers" can't print?

Ah well. You give them a funny line ...

Tom then later notes, given some typos in the Cincy Post version ("wan" instead of "wane" and "20202" instead of "2020"):

Weird. KNS certainly caught my "wan" (I honestly think I have a touch of dyslexia like two of my brothers who both had it seriously, although I never tested positive for it, but then, it's a way subjective test--especially back in the 1960s when the whole concept was just being discovered; note--I went through all the exercises anyway just because the two suffering brothers were just above and below me in birth order and hey! The exercises seemed fun). I don't remember any 20202, but that would be a simple finger slip.

Anyway, if KNS caught both (neither appear in its version), then how did Cincy get it wrong? Since the Scripps version is messed up too, all I can imagine is that KNS passed on the typos but then later fixed their own version.

Note the Atlantic City version is corrected. So I guess this whole thing speaks to how well individual papers scan their outside inputs. Scripps apparently didn't, or just missed it this time (Scripps has offered very adept editing suggestions in the past), and then some papers repeated the mistake, while others did not.

Me? I will please being very tired and writing this in the United VIP lounge in Ohare after driving 4 hours in scary weather at high speed (my flights over to Africa were a complete mess, due to tornados here in the States last Thursday).

So investigating to make sure I understand how this happened and how to prevent it in the future. My first guess is to take up Sean's offer that I run all columns through him for an edit.

Read on at KnoxNews
Read on at Scripps Howard

Early column sighting: Good ol' Press of Atlantic City

Next month in Esquire

From the April issue with Hilary Swank on the cover, p. 178 (almost at the very end), Esquire now does a preview of the next issue, and right after "63 Things Worth Shortening Your Life Over," you get:

On a totally different subject, Thomas P.M. Barnett Esquire contributing editor, defense strategist, and author of The Pentagon's New Map, offers us his brief on the state of the world 2007--the good news, the very bad news, and the wild cards. [arrow points from the words "wild cards" to a picture of Dick Cheney]

A very topical piece from someone who usually looks far ahead. Bit risky, that, but fun. I had imagined it like an updating of the country profiles from the original PNM map.

Collected articles for weeks in December and January, based on Mark Warren's proposal of the piece, then wrote it fast one long weekend. Been diddling with it ever since. Completed just before leaving for Africa--and I means minutes before leaving. Lotsa drawings/pix. Very modular.

You know, I come back from Africa more jacked than ever about the piece I wrote for Fast Company about China (dropped in a management shuffle for not being business-y enough). Reading that When Nixon Meets Mao book, I'm more psyched than ever about making the argument at this point in history. The big thing I get from that book is that the visionaries know where they are in history and know when they're making history. In fact, that's the essential buzz the visionary provides: that sense that what's being argued is history in the making. Unless you're willing to operate on that plane, with all the attendant risks and requirements, there's no sense in engaging in grand strategy.

So I guess I'm disappointed not to see the "State of the World" piece and the China piece hit the streets simultaneously, because the first one says where we are in history and the second argues for the best way to make history right now--preemptively.

Like Nixon said, "give history a nudge."

We shall see.

If the 4th can do this well...

POST: Wen Jiabao Weighs In

Very nice post by Steve on China. Worth a read.

And as you do, remember that Wen is 4th Generation and that the 5th gets basically teed up later this year at the party congress. So if the 4th exhibit this level of pragmatism, how much more might we soon expect from the 5th given its college educations in Europe and the U.S.?

One for the Ethanol King

ARTICLE: US-Brazil deal to boost bio-fuels, BBC News

Indeed. Score one for Mark from Texas, as reader Michael Griffin notes.

We exploit our own Gap, too

ARTICLE: S.C. may cut jail time for organ donors, By SEANNA ADCOX, Associated Press Writer

Reconnecting our prison population "gap" by the lure of shorter time thanks to organ donations.

This one is a creepy bit of Michael Crichton-like fiction predicted years ago by one of my wife's profs at Madison.

My point?

We're seeing the rise of this sort of--what to call it?--exploitation of the Gap's more financially desperate populations all the time on medical testing.

I guess this just shows we're willing to do it to our own Gappers.

Thanks to Vonne Barnett for sending this.

The short leg of the stool is Foggy Bottom

ARTICLE: Featured Embedded Report: Chris Muir from Iraq, The Fourth Rail

Good evidence of the SysAdmin's continued emergence and the crying need for a Department of Everything Else.

In the 3Ds (defense, diplomacy, development), the short leg of the stool is Foggy Bottom.

Thanks to CitSAR for sending this.

Jambo!

Just back from a week in East Africa running around on invite from Central Command to do some close-up advising and to give an apparently big-time address (specially tailored brief) to a slew (about 50) of Africa's best and brightest generals currently enrolled in Kenya's National Defence College (I may be exaggerating a bit, but it seemed a big deal as both our side (coalition) and their side (KNDC) exchanged plaques, plus Kenya's minister of defense, as well as the service chiefs of their navy, air force, and army were in attendance).

How did the invite get triggered? One of their top officers caught me at our National Defense U a bit back.

Naturally, a lot of material will arise from this very privileged series of exposures. Next week's column will focus on one unusual observation of my personal life made by a Kenyan brigadier general, but the bulk won't be out for a while (I have other things on my plate right now).

When I get it worked up, rest assured I will post my 10K-word diary of the trip on the blog. Til then, this cat stays in bag.

Hakuna Matata! (which really is a Swahili phrase meaning "no worries").

Nice to be back. 24 hours of either flying or car or high-speed boat to make it back from Kenya.

Will try some blogging soon, but no promises.

Also shot about 300 photos. Will figure out how to share some of those too eventually.

Was in some pretty remote places, but came through just fine. Had all my shots and took all my pills and geared up accordingly.

Did get spooked by some baboons once at night coming back from head and some spider monkeys coming outta shower one early morn. Got pix of latter on the spot and former during daylight.

My only direct hit suffered was some tough African crows crapping on me.

Also burned my emerging hair "gap" nicely after being on tarmac too long (can't wear hats due to safety).

Bit humbling, that.

Made a ton of contacts. I've gotta go with Steve someday soon. Turning him loose on Africa, where he's made deals happen previously in his career (90s) would be fun, especially in emerging Kenya, which not only reminds me of much of China, but has plenty of Chinese already running around.

Google Gapminder redux

Got an email on Google Gapminder, which we have covered before. The title is calling it 'The Gapminder World 2006, beta. Any interesting applications?

More favorite posts

Ok, y'all are noting some good posts in the comments of 1st favorite post.

+ Chuck agrees with Brandon on Thoughts on Sunday morn.
+ Alan says his favorite post is Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.
+ Allen says 'Who can pick?' (but he kind of likes the smackdowns ;-)
+ nykrindc likes Islamism is what goes with globalization.
+ CN's favorite post is Blowback on another military-only strategy.
+ Tom Mull likes the Sunday morning post and In a nutshell, my "problem" with global warming.
+ Ares likes Earth is doomed! Doomed I tell you! and When did Daily Kos turn from bully pulpit to just plain bully?
+ Tricia's favorite post was Grand strategy is not the Kiplinger Report. (Incidentally, Tricia's the one who wrote an editorial in The Aspen Times.

Unconvertable!

Man, y'all don't have very long memories ;-)

Jarrod Myrick writes in to say his favorite post was You're unconvertable!. To wit:

classic stuff here: inside the creative process--director's commentary; therapeutic for me; 'false friends' + bad teachers really resonates.

More soon. Thanks for playing my reindeer games ;-)

1st favorite post

Was it something I said? Somehow, the floodgates did not open ;-)

But thanks to Brandon for playing along. He picked Thoughts on Sunday morn, saying:

nice nuts-and-bolts explanation of how our system works, and and a serious reminder that more than anything, the Long War demands our patience. Tough in the age of 5-sec soundbite politics, and all the more necessary because of that.

Let's see... Ah yes, I was quoting this post just the other week:

I know, I know, you lose lives and you want everything to change on a dime. But in reality, we like our military slower than our politicians and our politicians slower than our titans of industry. That's how Hamilton and Madison set it up: commerce rules, politics adjust, military protects.

Anybody else have a favorite post? Or do I need to change the question? ;-)

Got a favorite post?

Since Tom's production is down this week, I planned to reprint some past posts or point you to stuff you might not have seen before. I still might.

But it occurred to me that it would be a lot more fun to have y'all suggest the posts you have liked in the past (especially after the great job you did on How did you convert to Tom?! (Which ended up at 86 comments, BTW!)).

And if you can't quite find it, click here to search the site.

I plan on linking some from a subsequent post.

So comment away!

Tom at JHUAPL (2005)

Still one of the best captures we've got of the Brief. Lots of great resources including 2 PDFs, 243.5 MB of video (!), a .zip file of all of the videos, and a full mp3.

I've said it before, but one of the things I really like about this Brief is that Tom's humor comes through and, after a while, the audience warms up to him and there's a pretty good dynamic there.

(BTW, if you're just wanting to download the mp3, here's the address.)

More Tom around the Web

+ Mind in the Qatar (Great play on pronunciation, BTW ;-) recommends PNM, Hugh's series with Tom, etc.
+ Movies , Books, Quotes, and Quirks quotes from PNM.
+ Murderati interviewed Tom's publisher, Neil Nyren, naming Tom as one of Neil's authors.
+ Jonathan Gurwitz calls PNM 'brilliant'.
+ Theory and Analysis references Tom on China.
+ Elect Romney in 2008 notes that Tom's not real worried about Russia.
+ NonParty Politics linked Tom's 8th appearance on Hugh's show and The presidential "start-up" that is Obama.
+ There is no second place reprinted the week 7 transcript from Hugh's show.
+ My Learning Curve hasn't mentioned Tom in a while, but he has talked about him quite a bit over the life of his weblog.
+ Opposed Systems Design tried to run Tom's theory through an old Barry Posen paradigm.

Tom around the web

+ ubikcan notes that Tom gets a whole chapter of criticism in the new book 'Violent Geographies'.
+ Newshog links Bush can take a good turn here (though he doesn't think the good will happen).
+ ShrinkWrapped linked More good signs from Iran.
+ Phatic Communion linked I've just about had it... (and also from Dreaming 5GW). Looks like Curtis is going to TypeKey-registered comments.
+ Chapomatic linked Tom's last appearance on Hugh's show (but, alas, the post disappeared).
+ Soob is a third of the way through BFA.. (And, wow, what an interesting comment thread, including a proposed battle royale between Tom and others! ;-)
+ Hot soup in my eye linked Pulling plug out of the question,
and linked Tom on 'energy independence'.
+ Dafydd at Big Lizards things he can condense PNM down to two sentences,
and writes about The Birth of the Functioning Core.
+ Indistinct Union calls Tom 'a 3rd way radical center approach'.
+ Spyral Notebook recommends BFA,
and references Tom in a post on 'Imperial Grunts'.
+ There Is No Second Place reprinted Tom on Hugh part 6.

More coming tomorrow...

Tom around the web tomorrow

Since Tom's a little out of pocket, and since our content's a little limited, and since I've already given you two great posts today... ;-)

I'm going to do my usual Tom around the web on Sunday tomorrow. Stay tuned! ;-)

Expect more shifts

ARTICLE: Army Secretary Is Ousted in Furor Over Hospital Care, By DAVID S. CLOUD, New York Times, March 3, 2007

I know Fran Harvey and think he was a great secretary who should have been given the chance to fix this problem rather than being ritualistically sacrificed. Firing the local Reed commander struck me as enough. Making the Army go without a secretary for several months and then enduring a new person for just the tail end of the administration might have felt good on the Hill, but it's pointless and counterproductive to an Army under huge strains right now. Harvey was a solutions-based guy, so he's the type you'd want on such a problem.

But since I don't know details of how Harvey's being connected to this, I won't say more. I just think it's sad because I know him to be both competent and a person of real honor, and I know that missing your secretary never helps a service under stress, so I just wish it had gone a different way, even as I understand the political outrage (very natural) over the shabby conditions at Reed. But war exposes this sort of stuff, showing yet again how it draws on resources that would otherwise feed the Leviathan beast with high-tech programs.

So expect even more shifts of resources to those services with the heaviest loads in the Long War.

Tom's column this week

Selling big ideas in a sound bite age

I just lived every author's dream. No, Oprah didn't call to tell me she's picked one of my books for her reading club. But ego-wise, I got the next best thing: an amazing series of eight, one-hour interviews on a nationally syndicated talk radio show to discuss my 2004 book, "The Pentagon's New Map" - chapter by chapter!

You have no idea how gratifying that is for an author who's spent years summing up 150,000-word books in more three-minute TV and radio appearances than I can remember.

Read on at KnoxNews

When jobs are your exit strategy, you cannot bomb your way to victory

Tom got this email:

Dr. Barnett:

I thoroughly enjoyed your series of interviews on the Hugh Hewitt show. Thank you.

In Iraq, we are engaged in asymmetric warfare. Why are we so quick to accept the premise that we must be engaged in this type of battle? Either Max Boot or Colonel Peters recently wrote about fighting on an equal footing with insurgents in Iraq as an ill-conceived strategy. But, they never explained why we are so quick to adopt it. Is it due to our aversion to any civilian casualties? We certainly did not fight WWI or WWII in this fashion....we firebombed Tokyo, Dresden, Berlin....why the change in military doctrine? Why now?

The 2001 Bush doctrine stated that we could preemtively strike any country that supported terrorists and exported terrorism. After Sadaam fell, what changed?

Sam Grier, CFA

Tom's answer:

We fight for very different goals. That's why.

To win, we need to leave the environment more connected than we found it--our opponents, the opposite. So we can't escalate on them, just deny them their resources: disaffected, disconnected foot soldiers. The classic insurgent is not the classic terrorist (middle-class, educated) who comes to play on our connected turf. That at-risk pool we shrink by extending economic connectivity (our biggest challenge right now in Iraq is unemployment).

When jobs are your exit strategy, you cannot bomb your way to victory.

News Thoughts

+ Remember when Tom briefed Obama's foreign policy guy? Sounds like the message got through: Obama: Iraq Strategy Strengthened Iran.

+ Bernanke shrugs off globalization, but heads into the unknown: may have to throw out his beloved rule book.

Anyone want to weigh in in the comments on how globalization changes the Fed's job?