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  • Great Powers: America and the World After Bush
    Great Powers: America and the World After Bush
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating
    Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century
    The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-first Century
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World: Comparing the Strategies of Ceausescu and Honecker
    Romanian and East German Policies in the Third World: Comparing the Strategies of Ceausescu and Honecker
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 1): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 1): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 2): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 2): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 3): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 3): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 4): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 4): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Thomas P.M. Barnett, Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett
  • The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    The Emily Updates (Vol. 5): One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived (The Emily Updates (Vols. 1-5))
    by Vonne M. Meussling-Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Emily V. Barnett
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Entries from January 1, 2006 - January 31, 2006

6:21AM

Joe Nye's review of BFA in the Washington Post's "Book World" (15 Jan)

The Post had promised to review PNM but never did, but now comes through on Blueprint for Action (which is cool since PNM was a WP bestseller in Dec 04). Not the full-up, singular review but a group review where BFA is paired with two other books.


But the guy reviewing it makes up for that by a ways: Joseph Nye, easily one of the most influential political scientists in the world for several decades now (his Power and Interdependence with Bob Keohane is the first great book on globalization--years before anyone else described it well--and his writings on "soft power" have had huge influence as well).


Joe, you must know, connected with me in a variety of ways when I was at Harvard. I took his graduate survey course on international relations (co-taught with Stanley Hoffman). I also taught as a teaching fellow in his famous undergrad course on international conflict. Finally, he advised my PhD diss, along with Houchang Chehabi (Iranian and specialist on Iran) and Adam Ulam (whom I worked for at Harvard's Russian Research Center).


I get a solid two paragraphs from Nye in the review. Here's the clipped version that covers only the BFA references:



Through a Glass Darkly:
The world's last superpower tries to find its way in the post-9/11 landscape.

Reviewed by Joseph S. Nye Jr.

Sunday, January 15, 2006; BW05

Book World

Washington Post




THE AMERICAN ERA: Power and Strategy for the 21st Century

By Robert J. Lieber

Cambridge Univ. 255 pp. $28


BLUEPRINT FOR ACTION: A Future Worth Creating

By Thomas P.M. Barnett

Putnam. 440 pp. $26.95


LAWLESS WORLD: America and the Making and Breaking of

Global Rules from FDR's Atlantic Charter to George W. Bush's Illegal War


By Philippe Sands

Viking. 324 pp. $25.95


Sept. 11, 2001, was like a bolt of lightning that illuminated a new foreign policy landscape. During the last quarter of the 20th century, the information revolution and the acceleration of globalization had shrunk distance. Suddenly, Americans were vulnerable to nonstate actors based in a poor weak country halfway around the world. Rather than simply signifying economic growth, globalization had created a new security threat. A transnational network of terrorists killed more Americans in one day than the government of Japan did with its surprise attack on Dec. 7, 1941.


Not surprisingly, this new world called forth a new grand strategy to relate America's capabilities to its interests and values. George W. Bush had run as a traditional realist who eschewed nation-building and wanted to focus his foreign policy on the great powers. But after 9/11, he soon devised the National Security Strategy that instead focused on terrorists, weapons of mass destruction and rogue states and asserted America's right to act preemptively, with or without the backing of allies or international institutions. The wisdom of that strategy is the subject of these three new books. Robert J. Lieber, a Georgetown political scientist, and Thomas P.M. Barnett, a Pentagon consultant, supported the Iraq War and approve of Bush's grand strategy, though they criticize what they describe as the inept way in which it has been implemented; Philippe Sands, a professor of international law in London, disagrees, both about the Iraq War and the underlying premise for Bush's new course: that the alliances and institutions America had created after 1945 were inadequate to deal with the al Qaeda menace.


Lieber's argument ...


In Blueprint for Action, Barnett is both more critical and more ambitious in his discussion of that course. In his words, "a grand strategy requires a grand vision," such as the one he sought to provide in his recent bestseller, The Pentagon's New Map. Now he is back with a blueprint by which the two-thirds of the world that he calls the global economy's "Functioning Core" can rescue the remaining third of humanity, trapped in what he calls the "Non-Integrating Gap," with the ultimate goal of universal inclusiveness and global peace. Politically bankrupt regimes in the Gap tend to support or attract transnational terrorist activities, he argues. But the United States can act as a Leviathan, or a proxy for the international community, in defeating and deterring rogue regimes. Barnett has a six-step plan to accomplish this: First, the U.N. Security Council acts as a grand jury to indict countries; second, the Core's biggest economies issue " 'warrants' for the arrest of the offending party"; third, the United States leads a "warfighting coalition"; fourth, a Core-wide administrative force (with the United States providing 10 to 20 percent of its personnel) puts things back together with the help of the fifth element, a new International Reconstruction Fund; followed by a sixth step, criminal prosecution of the apprehended parties at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. "That's it, from A to Z," Barnett notes cheerfully. "Bad states go in, better states come out." But when he applies this formula to, say, North Korea, the analysis is not very convincing.


Barnett writes in a breezy, self-referential style that tells the reader about the jokes he has cracked at various Pentagon briefings. He likes to engage in "big think"; consider him a sort of Thomas L. Friedman for colonels. Whenever someone promotes risky large ideas -- like allying with Iran and accepting the inevitability of that country's possession of nuclear weapons, or creating a new U.S. alliance with China, Russia, India and Brazil that would become more important than NATO -- he is bound to attract criticism. But interspersed with some zany ideas are trenchant criticisms of the Bush administration's strategy, as well as some highly original insights.


Philippe Sands's book ...


Joseph S. Nye Jr. is Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University and the author, most recently, of "The Power Game: A Washington Novel."


COMMENTARY: Nice to mention PNM as bestseller. Nice recap of Core and Gap and the basic strategy of shrinking it. Most excellent to get a run-through on the A-to-Z. He blanches re: my more vigorous approach to North Korea (fine, Joe's a big believer in international institutions). The inevitable "breezy" line because I don't write like an academic (forgiven, since that comment is mandated by his Harvard contract whenever he reviews non-academics like me). "Self-reverential" is kind enough, especially when paired with the Friedman comparison (much like Ignatius way back when, and it's a good niche description of me). The "risky ideas" commentary is okay, since he puts out the ideas fairly enough (I like being described as controversial and iconoclastic in my thinking, which Joe as much as says with his "will attract criticism" bit). "Some zany ideas" is a given, given his age and mindset, but I'll take the "trenchant criticism" and "highly original insights." Overall, a very positive review, in my mind, especially when the other two books don't seem to excite him much. I am greatly pleased, especially since it's from somebody I admire so much and who is so important in the field of international relations.


Find the full review at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/12/AR2006011201685_pf.html.

4:18PM

Done ego surfing ...

Had to catch up on stuff, though. Feel like I've been on Mars for the past several months. Never had any real down time like this last week.


25 posts by me alone! Gotta be my new record. So many that most are pushed off the front page of the blog already. Not sure that matters, but ...


Hope you find the newsletter enjoyable. Facing another transition in the work place, so it may be the last for a while.


Tomorrow, after I organize my files, I am going through my email account to find all the things I told myself I would blog but never got around to.


Then back to the Director's Commentary on BFA. Then I start reviewing the reviews. Should take me . . . through ... I'd rather not say.


Time to drink some beer and watch a totally inappropriate movie with my kids.

4:07PM

"Democracy Arsenal"/Lorelei Kelly on the QDR

I come across Lorelei Kelly's stuff a lot, and she always seems very solid to me.


Plus, the Democracy Arsenal cast is impressive. Good site to keep an eye on.


And yes, I cite her post because she references my China piece in Esquire last November!


Here it is: The QDR:Dreaming of the USSR.


Alas, Kelly is all too right on the QDR.

3:51PM

TM Lutas on "soft and hard kill" options on Iran

TM writes, as always, with great intelligence. I know he finds my soft-kill arguments hard to take. They require a lot of patience. But remember, it's how we took down the "evil empire" without firing a shot, and we did it all in a brief span of 16 years (1973-1989)!


The soft kill is also clearly working wonders in China, and I think history will judge it hugely instrumental in turning India outward after all those decades of "Hindu rate of growth." The mullahs, which TM worries about so, have already lost the fight for the masses in Iran. We are in the opt-out period much like Brezhnevian USSR, and no, we didn't realize it then either (although a summer in Leningrad in 1985 certainly convinced me of it).


Here's his good post on the subject: Hard Kill v Soft Kill in Iran.

3:29PM

Spent the afternoon designing our new Cedarworks playset on the company site

Resisted the temptation to go teak (my God, who has a teak playset?), because I like the size and robustness of the Cedarsaurus-size contraptions.


I have a brilliant space in the trees in my new side/back yard where this behemoth will go. Will the flat screen in the sun room, I complete my plans to be able to watch NFL games and the kids on the playground at the same time.


Now I must figure out a way for a small fridge to appear in the sun room stocked with Leinenkugels ....

3:25PM

Zenpundit on "Moral Countermeasures against anti-globalization guerrillas"

Mark Safranski is such a consistent performer on his blog (he, I know, is a teacher), that he must be a delight in class.


I missed this post during my BFA book tour buzzathon. Coming across it now, I want to bring your attention to it. Read the comments here and at "Coming Anarchy" and you get this sense of a fairly well-developed crew of writers. Are they some weird little cluster or do they represent more? Content-wise, clearly the latter, frequency-wise, who the hell knows?


I just really like this post: http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2005/11/moral-countermeasures-against-anti.html.

3:16PM

More Technorati treasure trove: "A PNM Take on the Riots" in France by Chirol at "Coming Anarchy"

Yes, I am trolling Technorati's search function for stuff on BFA. Catching up, as it were.


Anyway, beats the shit outta thinking about the Colt's butt-ugly loss today. Man that hurt! I have never seen such a down (got way behind), then up (caught up), then down (the 4th and 16 failure), then up (what was Cowher thinking?), then down (the CB doesn't score on the fumble return!), then up (Peyton drives!), then down (missed FG!).


But I regress . . .


I'm beginning to think I like "Coming Anarchy" more, because they treat PNM/BFA as tools and less as debating points.


This one is cool just for the funky graphics: http://www.cominganarchy.com/archives/2005/11/10/a-pnm-take-on-the-riots/.


The more I read Chirol, the more he impresses. One assumes Chirol is a teacher, given the functional use of other people's ideas. If not, he/she should be.

3:00PM

Podcast version of my interview with Bill Thompson on his "Eye on Books" show

Thompson is a really easy interview: super-profesional in execution, very friendly guy, and just plain prepares well.


This is a short, maybe 10-minute MP3 version of the interview I gave him during my book tour.


Find it at: http://thebookcast.blogspot.com/2005/11/thomas-barnett-stansfield-turner.html

2:55PM

Larry Kudlow has a blog, and an Xmas reading list

Yes, I know it's a bit late to cite this, but what the hell. I was just interested to know he blogs at http://lkmp.blogspot.com.


Here's the post in question:



My Holiday Reading List:



Capitalism and Freedom, by Milton Friedman. This is a golden oldie. I reread it this year. Apparently President Bush also read it this year — hopefully, he memorized it.

Flat Tax Revolution, by Steve Forbes. Tax reform is Bush's last hope for a big-bang policy proposal. Secy. John Snow is cooking up one. I hope the president and his Treasury secretary read the Forbes book.


Churchill and America, by Martin Gilbert. Winston Churchill was ahead of his time in understanding the power behind the English-speaking nations. Gilbert connects Churchill's ideas with those of the rising nation across the pond. (For a 21st century update on this theme, read James Bennett's The Anglosphere Challenge.)


Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating, by Thomas P. M. Barnett. The U.S. military in Iraq must now shift from war to peace. We were brilliant in the Iraq war, but we bungled the peace. Here's how to solve it.


The New Dealers' War: FDR and the War Within World War II, by Thomas Fleming. This is the book on why American-style socialism didn't work then and still doesn't now.


Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, by Doris Kearns Goodwin. Lincoln put all his political opponents in his Cabinet, where he befriended them and overshadowed them. Meanwhile, he somehow managed to save the Union and free the slaves. This is a great read.



Interesting collection, yes? Not books I am typically paired with, which I like.


Gotta get on his show!

2:50PM

The Newsletter from Thomas P.M. Barnett

GUEST FEATURE: Transforming U.S. forces and the World: Where are we now in this dual task?

Freely pass to people you know. Thank you very much.


You can download this Newsletter in Word or PDF format.


You can download previous issues, also in PDF or Word format, here: /newsletters/archive.htm .

2:26PM

The Scandanavian perspective on security, development and government

Interesting blog, especially the post, "Danish PM: Shrink the Gap."


Good to see the free map downloaded being readily employed.

2:19PM

If you gave New Hampshire Public Radio $120 ...

during their fall fund-raising drive, they would have given you a copy of BFA!


Check it out if you don't believe me: http://www.nhpr.org/node/9795.


New Hampshire, a great place to buy booze cheap before heading back into Massachussetts.

2:14PM

U.S. Army War College Library's Suggested Reading List 2005

Found here: http://www.carlisle.army.mil/library/military_reading_lists.htm.


Nice to see both PNM and BFA make the list.

1:31PM

"Coming Anarchy" coverage of a big Canadian-U.S.-UK military conference

I don't trust the Coming Anarchy for the most part because they revel a bit too much in that Fourth Generation Warfare-way, and because they seem too accepting of Robert Kaplan's view of things (hence the name, one imagines).


[Kaplan's Imperial Grunts, BTW, is not having the impact he hoped for inside the Special Ops community, according to many I speak with. They are realizing that his romanticism of their work is actually a bigger threat than the critics because it creates dangerous expectations that will never be fulfilled.]


But Coming Anarchy does get around and you have to respect that. Plus it's a place of vigorous debate within their view of the world, which I find accessible for the most part--just taken too far to extremes for my regular taste. In short, a little of these guys goes a long way, but perhaps that's just the contrarian in me.


This post CISS Event: Beyond the Three Block War is an interesting you-are-there capture of a defense conference up in Canada (where I have attended some of the more interesting such conferences in my career--like in a reverse universe or something!).


Here's some snippets from the blogger Younghusband:



Yesterday I attended a conference which outlined US, UK and Canadian perpectives on Three Block War. The Three Block War (3BW) concept was first articulated by retired Commandant of the Marine Corp, General Charles Krulak in a speech in 1997, and a famous article in 1999 entitled The Strategic Corporal ...

The event was organized by the Canadian Institute for Strategic Studies and was held at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto. Speakers included the Director General of Strategic Planning for the Canadian Forces MGen Andrew LESLIE, Marine 3 Corp commander LGen Thomas Metz as well as other interesting speakers from the US and UK militaries, Foreign Affairs and the rest of the CF services ...


Two of the dominating themes of the conference were joint operations between services, and the Military-Civilian disconnect ...


I also noted how the US officers’ presentations had a Barnettian flavour to them. But what surprised me the most was the Canadian Captain Paul Maddison, Director General for Maritime Force Development who quoted Barnett three times and used Core-Gap terminology throughout his presentation ...


As I have said here before, Canadians are just like Americans--but better. Intellectually, they're canaries in the coal mine or frogs in an endangered environment: if they don't get it, it will never be gotten. So naturally, the spread of the vision there is quite satisfying to me.


For another interesting post on how to apply PNM to domestic situations, see Chirol's Domestic PNM Theory.


My thanks to Zenpundit for alerting me to these posts.

1:11PM

How much smarter I get the further away you get from the coasts ...

Here is the text of an interesting article on BFA in the Topeka Capital-Journal:



Published Saturday, January 14, 2006

U.S. can't bring peace to world by itself


By Bill Roy

Special to The Capital-Journal


George W. Bush in his first narrowly successful campaign for president scorned "nation-building." And many people, thinking of the ugly Balkan wars of the '90s and "Blackhawk Down" in Somalia in 1993, nodded in agreement.


Many also recognized in 2000 -- and recognize now -- that our military does not have the resources and training to build peaceful national governments in nations we can easily defeat militarily. We know how to break things; we don't have the resources to put them back together, so many suffer.


Five years later the Bush administration (and all of us) is bogged down in nation-building in Iraq. To date, this has been hugely unsuccessful. As a result, Americans are growing impatient with the cost and loss of lives and may soon insist that we withdraw, leaving a made-in-America center for terrorism and asymmetric warfare.


Most of us don't want our investment of lives and money in Iraq to account for nothing -- or worse than nothing. And, due to the ineptitude of the Bush administration that may well be the result.


But, finally someone has taken the lessons of Iraq -- and a long-time, in-depth knowledge of the American military and our wars -- and found a silver-lining. In "A Blueprint for Action." author Thomas P.M. Barnett sees more peaceful missions for our military in the future.


Our immensely powerful military -- which he calls the Leviathan -- can strike down rogue governments that suppress their people and breed terrorists with relative ease. Thereafter, Barnett visualizes nation-builders from advanced nations with stable governments acting together to win the peace.


We are told Barnett, a Harvard Ph.D in political science, "regularly advises the office of the secretary of defense, Special Operations Command and the Joint Services Command and routinely offers briefings to ... the intelligence community and Congress."


In a sense his book is a follow-up on Thomas L. Friedman's books on connectedness and rapid economic development among two-thirds of the world's population. These people live in the "core" nations that both have an interest and capability to bring the other one-third of the world's people into a world with less poverty and injustice -- and a better chance for peace.


Otherwise, Barnett sees these have-not nations as the source of internecine wars in the 21st century. Such wars potentially threaten us all, especially if connected nations begin choosing up sides, as happened during the Cold War, instead of working together to bring peace and prosperity to these failed, disconnected nations.


In Iraq, the military mission was quickly accomplished with minimal loss of American lives. But our government made no preparations to win the peace. We were quickly overwhelmed by looting, chaos and finally an insurgency that did not have to happen. We were unable to switch from major combat operations to post-conflict stabilization operations, because we had too few troops and too few properly trained troops.


Barnett states we should have had in Iraq -- and will need in future wars -- peace-makers from "fellow core pillars." He writes, "Ideally, we would have had 30,000 to 40,000 peacekeepers each from NATO, Russia, India, and China."


But the Bush administration was more adept at making enemies than friends among nations whose help we needed. As a result, India's parliament said no, and negotiations with Russian President Vladmir Putin bogged down. The ham-handed neocons charged ahead more to win domestic elections than to achieve international stability.


In sum, our military as constituted today is capable of destroying other nations' war-making powers quickly and with minimal losses. But we do not have the personnel to win the peace and probably do not have enough people and money to win the peace in future wars. We need a new paradigm and help from other nations to establish secure governments in nations we attack.


Barnett takes us through the evolution of thought and war that has brought us to this point and discusses in depth political and economic barriers that must be overcome for the world's advanced nations to bring order, prosperity and peace to the failed nations that are breeding grounds for terrorists.



Bill Roy is a retired physician and former Member of Congress. He has a law degree and lives in Topeka. He may be reached at wirroy@aol.com.





COMMENTARY: It is interesting to see a review that doesn't seem aware of Vol. I's existence. Not complaining, because it's sort of a clean read on BFA alone, which is why it's so interesting to me. Obviously, I like being described as seemingly somewhat in synch with the Bush administration but a bit further down the road in my thinking (exactly the place the grand strategist strives to achieve, because you don't want to be so at-odd with the administration that you're some lone wolf, but you also don't just want to parrot their positions but rather extend them logically into something better). I don't mind the linkages to Friedman's past work, because I did start there. I just go different places in my conclusions. Still, he sells a lot of books, so the association is good for now--a useful touchstone for people trying to decide if they want to buy the book. And like Friedman (and Steven Spielberg in another life), I don't assume from the get-go that everything the U.S. Government does is evil and bad, so truth in advertising. Best part of this quasi-review (as they always are in the op-ed format) is that he locates the hopeful tone somewhere between over-the-top self-criticism and the desire to honor the sacrifices already made. You would think this was a large middle ground, but in today's political environment, it is not.


I'd send you to the original, but it takes a lot of signing in and registration to see. If desired, simply Google "Thomas P.M. Barnett" in advanced search in news and it'll pull up first.

7:17AM

"They confront us and deal with us in a very harsh and illegal language, but ultimately they need us more than we need them"

ARTICLE:"Iranian Says Pressure Won't End Nuclear BidIranian Says Pressure Won't End Nuclear Bid: Dismissing Sanctions Threats, President Asserts West Needs Tehran 'More Than We Need Them,'" by Karl Vick, Washington Post, 15 January 2006, p. A20.

Full story here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/14/AR2006011401107_pf.html.


Ahmadinejad is not stupid. Fanatical yes, but not stupid.


We just need to understand the entirety of the "they" he's referring to. The old "we," or the Old Core, needs the New Core for our shared global economy to continue flourishing.


The Old Core may have decided that Iran can't have the security it seeks with the bomb, but the New Core (India, Russia, China) have decided they need access to Iran (for China and India, it's energy, for Russia, it's a market where their marginally competitive exports can find purchase--just like the French more and more).


When Ahmadinejad refers to "they," he's referring to the entire Core, not just the West, but we, in the West (or at least the U.S.) can't seem to see this playing field for real.


The New Core has already chosen Iran for integration. We either get with that program or we split the Core on this issue.


Iran is smart enough to see this, especially Ahmadinejad, and that is why he will continue to play us for fools until we see the larger picture.


And no, the lecturing of the sort that Tom Friedman engages in ("The Axis of Order" is a wonderful phrase though, evoking the 1930s in a neat, spooky sort of way, yes?) won't work either.

6:58AM

To be filed under "Duh!"

Talk about a "man bites dog" story!


NYT reports that economists now argue that--duh!--war seems to cost our economy more than peace!


CANYOUBELIEVEIT?


I realize they are pinheads on both sides of the political spectrum that still believe such nonsense, but these people believe in a lot of nonsense. Must we write stories about them so regularly?


Here is the stunning article in question: When Talk of Guns and Butter Includes Lives Lost .


The stunning conceit of this new analysis? They're actually counting lost people now!


Wow! Who'd have thunk it?


The saddest part of this research? It's myopic focus on what this war gets America in particular and what this war costs America in particular. It is strictly binary in approach, as in, us-v-them.


There is no systems analysis here. There is no everything else beyond our borders. There is just "our costs" versus the prevention of the hypothetical attack on the U.S.


Do I pay taxes to have a police department JUST to prevent the criminal attack on my house and my family? Is that the limit of my understanding of a collective good here?


This is old thought that applies war-v-peace thinking from another era.


What I never get is this: everyone talks about a global community being good, but whenever the subject comes to our sacrifice versus our enjoyment of that community's growing benefits (globalization being the catch-all description of said benefits), we always seem to turn into these ungrateful, piggish, self-focused people.


We are losing lives in this war, and right now I'd more than love to have two of those at-risk lives back home from Iraq. But Americans need to remember the world we're trying to shape. There have been millions upon millions of deaths from violent conflict in this world (overwhelmingly in the Gap) since the end of the Cold War. Those calculations never seem to enter our thinking because the causal connections are too hard to make, it seems.


But remember this: Iraq is about connecting the Middle East to the world. When that happens, it's not just our soliders who don't have to die there anymore (though they will still die elsewhere in the Gap til it's gone), there are a lot of local lives not lost. There are also a lot of local lives enriched, which will benefit us and help other nations around the world advance as well.


I know that couching the war in these terms offends many. But we need to look into our past and realize that the military-market nexus is what we used to build this country: we used the military to secure these lands, and that security gave us the potential for the wealth we now enjoy. With the GWOT, we've just re-engaged that historical role on a global basis, and our cost-benefit calculations need to understand that. Because when they do, the logic of the A-to-Z rule set on processing politically bankrupt states in the Gap will seem compelling to the bulk of the American political spectrum.


So yeah, it matters.

6:50AM

The neverending dream that energy independence makes the Gap go away

If we didn't need their energy, then countries like Iran and Venezuela wouldn't be so bold and bad. Instead they'd just be poor and disconnected and angry.


Ah, but that tough love would work. Look at Cuba!


The NYT disappoints, as usual, with this editorial: Energy Impasse.


The logic is queer, to say the least: these countries are bad in large part because their economies are so biased toward energy exports (true); that bias gives rise to nasty elites (also true); if we make these societies and ecnomies more disconnected from the global economy, that will force their bad regimes to change (breakdown occurs here).


This is classic, and painfully simplistic "shock therapy" thinking. It persists because American love simple answers to complex questions.

6:43AM

The rural focus of China's 4th Generation leaders makes sense on healthcare alone

Here's the story with opening paras:



January 14, 2006
Wealth Grows, but Health Care Withers in China
By HOWARD W. FRENCH

FUYANG, China - When Jin Guilian's family took him to a county hospital in this gritty industrial city after a jarring two-day bus ride during which he drifted in and out of consciousness, the doctors took one look at him and said: "How dare you do this to him? This man could die at any moment."


The doctors' next question, though, was about money. How much would the patient's family of peasants and migrant workers be able to pay - up front - to care for Mr. Jin's failing heart and a festering arm that had turned black?


The relatives scraped together enough money for four days in the hospital. But when Mr. Jin, 36, failed to improve, they were forced to move him to an unheated and scantily equipped clinic on the outskirts of Fuyang where stray dogs wandered the grimy, unlighted halls.


China's economic reforms have turned an almost uniformly poor nation into an increasingly prosperous one in the space of a mere generation. But the collapse of socialized medicine and staggering cost increases have opened a yawning gap between health care in the cities and the rural areas, where the former system of free clinics has disintegrated.


In the last several years China has experimented with reforms aimed at improving health care for peasants. The most important is an insurance plan in which participating farmers must make an annual payment of a little more than a dollar to gain eligibility for basic medical treatments ...


This is some serious caboose braking, per my BFA vernacular. It points to a variety of points I like to harp on with China: coast can only go as fast as interior can stand; the future "outsourcing" by China will be mostly "near-sourcing" to the interior regions; service-sector growth will be more important than manufacturing growth in future for China, and its interior integration in coming years and decades will dwarf its exterior integration with the world.


Globalization is a domestic issue everywhere, but no more so than in China. Beijing needs more globalization to keep the country together. Once Deng made that choice to open up, this all becomes a fait accompli, including the ultimate loss of the party's hegemonic position in Chinese politics.


The only question for us is, What do we do to facilitate this process in such a way as to advantage ourselves and the world?


And dreaming of China-the-near-peer-competitor isn't the answer.


Full story found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/14/international/asia/14health.html

6:34AM

Couldn't resist on this one ...

Here is the nice, definitive piece from an infantry guy writing an op-ed in the NYT: All Dressed Up With No Way to Fight. This refers back to my previous blog about body armor.


Andrew Exum's op-ed (All Dressed Up With No Way to Fight) in the 14 Jan 06 NYT basically makes that case for balance in the search for the perfect-armored warrior.


He reminds me of that scene in "A Christmas Story" when Ralphie's little bro is so wrapped up in winter clothes by mom before heading out to school that he can't move his arms. When he falls down on the way to school, he can't get up.

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