Chart of the day: drawing down in Iraq

A trio of stories (WAPO, NYT, WSJ--the last providing the chart) exploring the feasibility of the drawdown trajectory, all projecting the usual fears (meddling neighbors, political gridlock in Baghdad, stubborn insurgent activity, fears of an Arab-Kurd conflagration).

Bases will shrink and disappear, as will vast amounts of gear.  What gets left behind is primarily small units for training and support to the Iraqi army.  Besides the usual counterinsurgency stuff, the big focus is on controlling Iraq's long borders--especially with Iran.  U.S. troops will likewise be stationed along the line separating the Kurdish Regional Gov provinces and the rest of Iraq.

Naturally, backfilling with contractors will occur, and by the end of the summer, they should outnumber the troops by 50% (75k to 50k).

The footprint of the Special Ops forces will remain basically unchanged across the coming months--the focus on killing the worst insurgents.  I wouldn't be surprised if "zero" is never reached but never acknowledged either. The SOF guys aren't usually counted.

I would comment on the administration's strategy here, except I can't really see any--other than leaving. Iraq-the-outcome seems no more regionalized now than it ever was under Bush-Cheney.  I feel like we're pushing the foster kid out the door on his 18th birthday no matter what.

And yeah, the neighborhood is making plans.