A dual trend I can live with re: Iran

INTERNATIONAL: "Arab States Aligned With U.S. Savor Turmoil in Iran," by Michael Slackman, New York Times, 25 June 2009.

NEWS ANALYSIS: "Ahmadinejad Reaps Benefits of Stacking Key Iran Agencies With His Allies," by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 25 June 2009.

Gist:

The good-news thinking goes like this: With Mr. Ahmadinejad remaining in office, there is less chance of substantially improved relations between Tehran and Washington, something America's Arab allies feared would undermine their interests. At the same time, the electoral conflict may have weakened Iran's leadership at home and abroad, forcing it to focus more on domestic stability, political analysts and former officials said.

The counter is the usual: divided at home, Iran will cause trouble abroad to foster regime unity and popular legitimacy.

Of course, Sunni autocrats can't like the lessons of the Iranian unrest, but their logic runs that Persian Shia can't possibly set any examples for Arab Sunni.

Best part:

Moreover, the dramatic video of Iranians being beaten or shot by Basijis has done incalculable damage to Iran's image as the region's most religiously pure and populist state. Iran's allies in the region, including Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hamas movement in the Palestinian territories, also seem likely to suffer a blow to their credibility, and perhaps to their financing, if the election crisis is resolved with heavy suppression or an extended standoff with the opposition, analysts said.

The Big Bang revived!

Yes, Ahmadinejad and the Guards survive in Iran thanks to years of stuffing loyalists into top positions and consolidating the power of the presidency, but there are still powerful centers of gravity outside their reach: the parliament, the population, imams breaking with government authority.

No hurry for this to go our way.