3:15AM
WTO: correcting on the correction in global trade
Tuesday, April 14, 2009 at 3:15AM WORLD NEWS: "WTO Predicts Global Trade Will Slide 9% This Year," by John W. Miller, Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2009.
Old prediction was 2.19%. Now it's 9%, which is a stunner. World Bank says 6%, but you get the idea.
Two things drive the plummet: drop in demand and rising trade protectionism.
In 2008 world trade grew 2% to $15.8 trillion, so a 9% drop would take it down to the $14.4 T range, so globalization knocked back several years on that score.
I've also seen data that says the total value of global exports and imports is more like $25T. I can't account for the difference. Anybody know what would generate such a swag? How are they counting differently?
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