Another good look-ahead on Cuba post-Castro

ARTICLE: "Cuban Economists Envision Role For Markets in Post-Castro Era," by Bob Davis, Wall Street Journal, 10 January 2006, p. A1.

Great stuff. Just seeing this thinking out in the open even before Castro croaks is a very good sign.

And the scenario described here is very realistic: small marketizing reforms at first, with no explicit acceptance of foreign direct investment (but just watch the informal flows boom from Miami) and once they get so far with that and no further, they'll want serious money and the opening-up process will rapidly balloon out of control.

Raul will rule with committees galore and new names will rise that we've never heard of before.

Then before he croaks (or when), we'll see serious reformers step up, "new era" and all that, and the popular push for direct elections will begin.

None of this happens overnight, but within five years Cuba is unrecognizable. The young will love it and dub it the "second revolution" and the old will be baffled and nostagically pine for the good old days. Old Miami Cubans will be shocked that the Cuba of their youth is not resurrectable, but they won't care given all the freedom to visit back and forth.

Sooner than any can imagine, life in Cuba will ramp up so close to that in Miami, the talk will begin of going all the way toward joining the U.S. Then, depending on the presidential election year, you'll start seeing Cuban statehood as a staple of Florida's electoral quid pro quo (just like sanctions support got you the Cuban vote in the past).

Going to be fascinating to watch.

Comments

[stuart abrams]

I just hope we have a Cuban Deng Xiaoping rather than a Yeltsin waiting in the wings. If there is a fire-sale of Cuban assets, it could turn into a gangsters' paradise and be very ugly. It would be better if the transition got underway before Fidel dies, but I'm afraid that the U.S. will continue the embargo right up until the moment of his death. I don't see the 51st State thing happening -- too much historical baggage -- and I'm not sure that it would be the best thing for Cuba. Also, you have the same factor that has scared off Puerto Ricans -- U.S. citizens pay U.S. taxes.

[bill s]

I'll be a monkeys uncle if that comes about.

[Michael]

At risk of sounding like a broken record, how does Chavez effect this? He controls much of Cuba's energy supply, he's got the charisma Raul & Co do not, and he has Fidel's favor (so far as I've seen, at least). How hard would it be for him to leverage these advantages into a de-facto control of Cuba? I'm not say the marketization described above can't happen, just that it might be a much longer process as the US and Venezuela get into a tug-of-war over the Cubans' future.