The near-beer competitor raises its foamy head

ìAs China Goes, So Goes Taiwan: Islandís Stock Decline Underscores Link to Mainlandís Economy,î by Dan Nystedt and Sabrina Kuo, Wall Street Journal, 6 May, p. C14.

ìBattle Shaping Up for Chinese Brewery: SABMiller counters a stake purchase by Anheuser in a huge market for beer,î by Chris Buckley, New York Times, 6 May, p. W1.

This conference today is full of the usual nonsense from old-timey admirals about China clearly being the rising threat in the east. One guy went so far as to declare the ìnear-peer competitorî already here.

Yeah buddy, and when they invade Taiwan itíll be called the ìmillion man swim.î

Hereís the far more complex underlying reality: Taiwan is so in bed in China economically that the biggest threat China poses to the island state would be a decision to slow down its red-hot economy. China surpassed Japan and the U.S. this year to become Taiwanís biggest trade partner, so guess whoíll suffer most in a Chinese slow down? The export-dependent small island nation off its coast.

Thereís a dangerous scenario for 2005, not some high-tech fantasy for war in 2025. Another good example of ìeverything elseî trumping war in the era of globalization.

As for the beer reference: I just couldnít resist the pun. My old mentor at CNA Hank Gaffney always loved to ridicule the near-peer competitor concept as the ìnear-beer competitorîóyou know, it tastes great, but itís less filling than the old Soviet threat.

Well, if Anheuser or Miller get their way, the near-beer competitor will be rising far faster than its military counterpart.

Drinkers of China, I salute you!