The New Core pillars at risk (India)

"Premier of India is Forced to Quit After Vote Upset: Party of Gandhis in Lead: Poorest Seem Angry with Uneven GainóA Family Returns," by Amy Waldman, New York Times, 14 May, p. A1.

"New Government In India Pledges To Push Growth: After Congress Party Win, Sonia Gandhi Is in Line to Be First Foreign-Born Leader," by Jay Solomon and Eric Bellman, Wall Street Journal, 14 May, p. A1.

The victory by the Congress Party was a shocker, but this was a clear signal from the masses that they did not want to be left behind in "India Shining," the ruling-party's slogan describing how far the nation had come under their privatizing rule.

Will the return of the socialist-leaning Gandhis mean a return to the "Hindu rate of growth" (heavy state sector, highly protectionist, and very poor attractor of foreign direct investment)? We can only wonder. The nostalgia for sort of watered-down form of socialism has never left the political sceneódespite its decades of poor performance.

People on Wall Street five years ago told me that within a half-decade India would be as hot as China was back thenóand they were right. But if enough boats aren't lifted by that tide, you'll get political reversals in a democracy with an anti-incumbent streak like India. But it will be hard for even the Gandhisóled by presumptive Prime Minister Sonia (she being Italian-born, and originally a Christian to boot!)óto turn back that political clock with China growing like gangbusters.

China and India were almost exactly the same back in 1980, by most per capita measures, but today China is leaps and bounds ahead, thanks to the economic reforms Beijing has pursued. That powerful example has been a great goad to India's reforms of the past decade, and it's not likely to go away even if the BJP is out of power now.

Already key Congress Party players are not only pledging to continue the recent rapid growth, but bragging that it really began under their rule in the early 1990s (actually trueóunder assassinated PM Rajiv Gandhi). So there's real hope that non-comformist Sonia will be more of a Clinton liberal than some gawdawful throw-back to the old days and the "third ways."

There's nothing wrong with campaigning on behalf of the little people and making the case that they have to share in the opening up of India to the outside world as much as the high-tech and service-industry people have. But a return to the protectionism of the past would be a disaster for India, killing a lot of great economic connectivity built up with the outside world over the past decade.

India is a such a bell-weather state for globalization, so a close eye on this development is warranted.

The New Core pillars at risk (China)

"Chinese Economy May Be Cooling: Some April Data Indicate Efforts to Rein in Growth Might Be Yielding Results," Wall Street Journal, 14 May, p. A10.

"China's Economy Continues to Race Ahead," by Keith Bradsher, New York Times, 14 May, p. W1.

What we have with China right now is just endless speculation about whether or not the government can slow down the sizzling hot economy using the rudimentary political levers it has at its disposal (e.g., it lacks bankruptcy laws, so it's mostly about prosecuting "corruption" and "fraud," meaning Beijing threatens local party officials to slow things down or suffer some personal penalty as a result). As usual, the WSJ is more optimistic than the NYT, looking at the same April data.

What saves the government right now is that its trade deficit remains slows down the foreign money pouring into their economy, which otherwise fuels additional lending. So the higher prices for oil are helping, oddly enough.

The New Core pillars at risk (Russia)

"Bond Market In Russia Faces Major Crunch," by Craig Karmin, Wall Street Journal, 14 May, p. C1.

"EU Nears Accord To Back Russia In Bid for WTO: With Europeans Onboard, U.S. Still Needs Convincing In Membership Campaign," by Scott Miller and Guy Chazan, WSJ, 14 May, p. A10.

No danger of a state financial collapse like 1997, this time it's the corporate bond market that's fallen on hard times, meaning companies are having trouble floating debt. This troubled market follows similar downturns in Brazil and Turkey recently.

Too much of the corporate bond market in Russia right now qualifies as junk bonds, or poor grade investments. That scares off investors because, unlike in the case of the government where the IMF stepped in, this is no one backing these investments if the companies fail

Improving that overall climate for private-sector debt is crucial, which is why it's so important that Russia, after ten years of trying, finally get into the WTO sometime soon. Getting inside the World Trade Organization would put a lot of new pressure on the corporate sector to clean up its actóaccounting wise. And that would improve the climate for corporate debt over time.

The EU is all set to support Russia's latest membership bid, but the US is holding things up by demanding more market access concessions than the Europeans typically do, especially for foreign direct investment in banking, insurance, and telecommunications sectors. Let's hope US Trade Rep Bob Zoellick makes this deal come about as soon as possible. We don't need Russia's corporate bond market invariably putting the squeeze on its sovereign bond market over the next few months and years.

Libya as demonstration effect in the GWOT

"Libya Halts Military Trade With North Korea, Syria and Iran," by Judith Miller, New York Times, 14 May, p. A4.

Bit by bit the old collection of "rogues" is getting smaller. No more Iraq, and Cuba is just plain pathetic. Libya's been turned with promises of a dÈtente of sorts, leaving us working just Syria, Iran and North Koreaóunless you want to count Pakistan as I do.

Yes, Qaddafi has been moving in this direction for years, but no real progress until we dropped Saddam's regimeóthen presto! Logjam of negotiations seems to break just like that.

Anyone who tells you that the list of bad regimes is never-ending throughout the Gap is just plain wrong. The numbers of true rogues is not growing, it's actually shrinking. Failed states are another issue, because they attract the transnational terrorist networks like a dirty apartment attracts roaches.

But overall, you have to be happy with Qaddafi rolling over on a host of security issues. Yes, he's still a complete jerk who needs to go, but he's becoming an increasingly irrelevant jerk who needs to goómuch like Fidel Castro.

The flow of energy grows more unpredictable

"Chilly Reception: Fears of Terrorism Crush Plans For Liquified-Gas Terminals: Activists Claim an Explosion Could Create Deadly Fires; Dr. Fay Spreads Message (Industry Says Fuel Is Safe)," by John J. Fialka and Russell Gold, Wall Street Journal, 14 May, p. A1.

"Chinese Oil Demand Puzzles Market: Sudden Shifts in Usage By Second-Largest Market Make Forecasting Difficult," by Bhushan Bahree, WSJ, 14 May, p. A6.

"As Prices Rise, Russia Alters Oil Politics Toward U.S.," by Erin E. Arvedlund, NYT, 14 May, p. W1.

Three big players and uncertainty abounds about future energy requirements and the ability to meet them.

U.S. is very tight on natural gas, but doesn't seem to have the political will to deal with that capacity crunch. Don't worry, it will when the prices get high enough, but expect serious price fluctuations and spurious explanations for failure (terrorism threat!) until then.

With China, it's all about how much energy they will need over the coming years and decades that has the global market uncertain. Depending on the trajectory of its growth, the numbers on energy project out to a widely varying degree. And since you can't make energy infrastructure appear out of thin air, the global markets are taking these long-term projections very seriously. Having done a lot of research on this, I will tell you that every year, when the Department of Energy revises its China projections just a bit here and there, it ends up changing the 2025 numbers a whole damn lot, so basically every number on China's future energy requirementsóno matter how far you look outócarries a high degree of swag, or uncertainty.

Finally, again with Russia, what looked like this rapidly growing relationship between a stable source (Russia) and a buyer looking (like everyone else it seems) to reduce its "dependency" (an overblown concept if you check the numbers) on Middle Eastern oil is now looking a whole lot more iffy. What drives this most? The arrest and ongoing investigation of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, billionaire founder of Yukos. As I noted in the book, the government's prosecution of Khodorkovsky calls into question the preservation of private ownership rights in Russia, which makes investors shy away (no surprise) and sours potential deals involving energy multinationals.

The sweet brief taste of double-digit Amazon

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 13

The Wall Street Journal profile on Tuesday gave the book a predictable bounce in the sales rankings. Prior to Tuesday's article, the PNM was hovering in the 500 to 800 range at Amazon, but as soon as it hit the stands, it was propelled right up the charts, peaking for roughly 24 hours at 40, which beats the original high of 42 on 29 April. Barnes and Noble's rank likewise hit a new high at 80. (Why the difference? Beats me.)

As before, it felt goodódamn, it felt mighty good! But what feels as good is the huge jump in hits on the site, the flood of speaking invitations, and some interesting offers for transforming the material for use in other mass media venues. In short, the book is finding an audience hungry for a vision that's positive and portrays a useful role for America beyond simply killing terrorists or firewalling itself off from that "scary" world outside.

None of this stuff we're doing in this Global War on Terrorism is easy, and we'll see plenty of dark days like Tuesday's beheading video of American Nick Berg, but in the end America needs to see itself strongly identified with a happy ending to this whole sagaónot just for Americans but for the world at large.

I got more than a few emails about the exchange I had with a military officer in the Joint Staff when I briefed the Strategic Plans and Policy (J-5) offsite (described in the WSJ article)óin effect, our disagreeing that everyone on this planet wants the same things for their children. There will always be that temptation to view the enemy as fundamentally inhuman, or something so alien we simply cannot recognize it's motivations and desires.

But I didn't want to write that book, or sell that fear, or divide this nation or this world into those who are "us" and those who must forever remain "them." I don't see a world of good and evil so much as a world of those able to do good and those prevented from that opportunity. So I will be called "quirky," and "naÔve," and a "dreamer," as I have been throughout most of my career. But this is fine so long as the material finds an audience, so long as mindsets are unfrozen, and so long as much-delayed debates are triggered by dramatically new descriptions of the tasks that lie ahead.

The battle for hearts and minds isn't merely going on in Iraq, but all over this world. This is why my webmaster and I get most excited by all those site visits from overseas . . ..

Meanwhile, some articles that catch my eye:

"Regional Planning: U.S. to Present Revised Program for Democracy in Mideast; Skepticism Is Widespread," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 13 May, p. A12.

"Economic Scene: Afghans come up with an aid plan of their own design," by Jeff Madrick, NYT, 13 May, p. C2.

"Pakistan's Uneasy Role in Terror War: Conciliatory Approach to Tribal and Foreign Fighters Leaves U.S. Officials Frustrated," by Pamela Constable, Washington Post, 8 May, p. A8.

"Muslims Avenge Christians' Attacks in Nigeria: Long-simmering ethnic and religious tensions explode," by AP, NYT, 13 May, p. A8.

"Op-Chart: Where the Jobs Are," by W. Michael Cox, Richard Alm and Nigel Holmes, NYT, 13 May, p. A27.

"Scientists Warn of a Visa 'Crisis,' " by Antonio Regalado, Wall Street Journal, 13 May, p. B4.

"What if 12 Million Californians Vanished?" by Miriam Jordan, WSJ, 13 May, p. B1.

"In Pacific, a Red Carpet For China's Rich Tourists," by James Brooke, NYT, 13 May, p. W1.

Building democracy on the cheap

"Regional Planning: U.S. to Present Revised Program for Democracy in Mideast; Skepticism Is Widespread," by Steven R. Weisman, New York Times, 13 May, p. A12.

"Economic Scene: Afghans come up with an aid plan of their own design," by Jeff Madrick, NYT, 13 May, p. C2.

The Bush Administration is going to re-present its Greater Middle East Initiative, hoping to get some buy-in from the Group of 8 in their June meeting at Sea Island, GA. It will call for ìincreased engagement by the West to promote democracy, womenís rights, education, political reforms, free markets and investments, an independent judiciary and media, and greater efforts to crack down on corruption.î

The proposal also calls for some ministerial body to be created by G-8 to interact with the Middle East on all these goals.

All well and good, say I. And I like that this is coming from the G-8 vice the ineffective UN. But this kind of transformation canít be done on the cheapóespecially following a regime takedown.

According to the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, Afghanistan, the first targeted rebuilding job in the Global War on Terror, has only receiving $67 of aid per every man, woman and child since the end of the war there. That compares to $814 per person in Kosovo during their rebuilding period of í99-01 and $249 per person in Bosnia from í95-97. Even Haiti ($74 from í95-98 and Rwanda ($114 from í94-96) got a better deal from the Core.

As the author of the second article says, ìthe neglect also sadly reflects the refusal of rich nations to undertake costly, multifaceted solutions to long-term, complex problems.î And yet, ìAs we are learning in Iraq, military security and economic development in war-ravaged nations are inextricably linked. The responsibility, however expensive, cannot be neglected or wished away.î

So not only are the boys never coming back, but weíll need to send large amounts of aid is we hope to shrink the Gap by taking out its worst security sinkholes.

Handicapping the Gap (Pakistan & Nigeria)

"Pakistan's Uneasy Role in Terror War: Conciliatory Approach to Tribal and Foreign Fighters Leaves U.S. Officials Frustrated," by Pamela Constable, Washington Post, 8 May, p. A8.

"Muslims Avenge Christians' Attacks in Nigeria: Long-simmering ethnic and religious tensions explode," by AP, New York Times, 13 May, p. A8.

The usual story on Pakistan, doing its best to combat terrorists in its northwest territories, but frankly, since Islamabad has only limited sovereignty over those tribal lands, the government there really isnít in a position to promise anythingómuch less pull it off.

Pakistan is an impoverished Muslim country of 150 million people, rife with religious passions and bristling with weapons. Many Pakistanis are obsessed with national sovereignty and suspicious of Western motives; some adhere to radical interpretations of Islam and opposed efforts to modernize society. Tribesmen are especially protective of their autonomy and traditional way of life.î

In other words, most of Pakistan is stuck in the 19th century, right down to the way women are treated like minors their entire lives.

This isnít a functioning state in any real sense of the word. Pakistan is a collection of tribal lands, as disconnected from one another in their tribalism as the whole lot of them are fundamentally disconnected from the outside world. Islamabad is the outward faÁade of this non-existent state.

Not surprisingly, such a disconnected, lawless place is best at exporting danger in the form of terrorism, drugs, and WMD. Pakistanís record on all three is simply amazing. Donít expect it to get better on any these issues any time soon.

Meanwhile, Nigeria continues to offer coming attractions of the civil wars that will inevitably migrate out of the Middle East and into sub-Saharan Africa as fundamentalist Islam invariably retreats deeper into the Gap in coming decades, constantly seeking more remote refuges from globalizationís creeping advance.

A shortage of brainiacs due to 9/11?

"Op-Chart: Where the Jobs Are," by W. Michael Cox, Richard Alm and Nigel Holmes, NYT, 13 May, p. A27.

"Scientists Warn of a Visa 'Crisis,' " by Antonio Regalado, Wall Street Journal, 13 May, p. B4.

The NYT op-ed chart points out that all the job growth will be in positions that stress people skills and emotional intelligence, imagination and creativity, and analytic reasoning. Meanwhile, jobs are disappearing in career paths that emphasize formulaic intelligence, manual dexterity and muscle power.

Where are we going to get all these people if our educational system does not produce them? We typically have imported a good portion of this talent through immigration and work visas, but all that is being threatened by post-9/11 changes in these areas. University groups are warning that America may end up ìisolated,î with top talent seeking friendlier welcomes elsewhere.

Hereís the crazy kicker though: roughly half of the students suffering visas delays were from China and almost 10% were from India. The Middle East and other Muslim states accounted for just over a quarter. So two giant nations with loads of young brainiacs to spare are being hurt worst by the new rule sets since 9/11.

What if Mexico wasn't one of us?

"What if 12 Million Californians Vanished?" by Miriam Jordan, Wall Street Journal, 13 may, p. B1.

The article describes a Mexican feature film, a comedy that describes what a day in California would be like if all the Mexicans living there were suddenly to disappear. The lead actress says ìThe idea of the film was to make the invisible visible . . . [to] open peopleís eyes to everything we Latinos are giving.î

Latinos make up one third of Californiaís population, accounting for 57% of its construction workers, 58% of its cooks, and 53% of its janitors. Donít even get me started on the Los Angeles Dodgers!

I wonder if Sam Huntington will go see this film . . ..

Chinaís ìfifth columnî = tourists

"In Pacific, a Red Carpet For China's Rich Tourists," by James Brooke, New York Times, 13 May, p. W1.

In 1993 Chinese tourists traveling abroad numbered about 3 million. Today that number is over 20 million. That, my friends, is a clear sign of a country opening up to the outside world and joining the global economy.

So now tourist havens all over Asia are scrambling to attract this glorious pool of spendthrifts: for example, in Guam, the average Chinese tourist engages in $1,500 of shopping during vacations there, almost triple what the average Japanese tourist spends.

Now even Japan is working hard to attract Chinese tourists.

Better take down those ìJapanese onlyî signs!

All over Asia the Chinese tourists are rapidly replacing the Japanese as the preferred vacationing guest. Why is this happening? The article cites ìtwo crucial moves by the government last fall to placate the growing middle classî: 100 extra cities in China were opened up in terms of letting their citizens travel abroad (previously, only citizens of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou had this privilege); and now citizens can take $6,000 out of the country on their trips instead of $2,000 in years past.

Yet another nasty sign that China is plotting to conquer the world . . .

Spreading the word throughout DoD

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 12 May

Have no doubt, getting on the front page of the Wall Street Journal is way coolóbeyond way cool. Hell, I'm going to frame the whole front page.

But as a security analyst working for the Department of Defense (DoD), what you really want to see is the article being reprinted in the major clipping services. The big enchilada is the Early Bird service, which is the Pentagon's official reprint service. But also important for this Naval War College professor is the Chinfo New Clips ("Chinfo" referring to Chief of Information) put out by the Navy's Office of Information. That daily pub goes to every admiral in the navy.

Well, the WSJ profile made the main portion of the Early Bird yesterday as the 12th story out of 45 (listed under the category "Defense Department"), and it appeared in today's Chinfo on page 21. So that's some serious icing on the cake.

Here is today's catch of articles:

REFERENCES:

"Chinese Construction Companies Go Global: Evolving Know-How And Low Costs Help Firms Score Contracts Abroad," by David Murphy, Wall Street Journal, 12 May, p. B10.

"Foreigners Try to Melt an Inhospitable Japanese City," by James Brooke, New York Times, 12 May, p. A4.

"Indian Voters Turn a Cold Shoulder to High Technology," by Saritha Rai, NYT, 12 May, p. W1.

"Overdosing on Islam," by Nicholas D. Kristof, NYT, 12 May, p. A23.

"Economic Focus: Feeding the Hungry (In the fourth of a series of articles on the Copenhagen Consensus project, we look at hunger and malnutrition)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 74.

"Brazil: An underpowered economy (Lula's government is trying to remove obstacles to investmentóbut not fast enough)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 35.

"Vietnam's economy: The good pupil (Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing countries in Asia)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 39.

Forget the sickle, Chinese focus on hammer

"Chinese Construction Companies Go Global: Evolving Know-How And Low Costs Help Firms Score Contracts Abroad," by David Murphy, Wall Street Journal, 12 May, p. B10.

The Chinese are coming! The Chinese are coming! To a construction site near you. Last year Chinese construction companies won almost $20B in overseas contracts, and weíre talking Nigeria, Malaysia, Iran, and . . . Harlem. Projects in roughly 180 countries in all, which is just about everywhere in a world of 192 UN member states.

These construction companies cut their teeth in building up Hong Kong all those years, and now theyíre looking to establish their reputations in the U.S., by doing things like winning a share of the $1b make-over of the UN headquarters in NYC.

But to win the really beeeeeeeg contracts, experts predict that Chinese construction companies will have to become more like Western firms in terms of obtaining financing and integrating innovative technologies into their construction methods.

Yes, yes. Connectivity requires code, as do new buildings. China the near-peer keeps rising. Forget the submarines, check out the skyscrapers!

Iran's sullen majorityóuncensored

"Overdosing on Islam," by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, 12 May, p. A23.

Another fabulous article by Nick Kristof where he samples Iranís unhappy masses. His descriptions remind me greatly of the should-have-been ìboomersî of the Soviet Union that I spent a lot of nights with in the summer of 1985. Hanging out with all these thirtysomethings back then, it was clear to me that all of them had already opted out of the system, meaning Gorbachevís call to reform Soviet society and its economy was doomed to failure. He simply would never be able to connect to these people, the core of society, in any meaningful wayóthey were already lost. So when Gorby started opening up the system, it fell apart completely.

By Kristofís description, Iran is at roughly the same point as the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s, which is why I say in the conclusion to my book that the mullahs will lose their grip on power before 2010. As one plumber said, ìHow can you have hope for life any more? If there were a free vote, 99 percent would oppose this system, and only the 1 percent within the system would support it?î

This is what ìcompulsive Islam,î as Kristof dubs it, gets youóthe sullen and disconnected majority. This is not really any different that what ìcompulsive socialismî got the Soviets in Russia. We are waiting on the Chernobyl-like spark, the Gorbachev-like leaders, the Ceausescu-like collapse of regime legitimacy.

I canít wait.

Indians left out of the boom vote too

"Indian Voters Turn a Cold Shoulder to High Technology," by Saritha Rai, New York Times, 12 May, p. W1.

Great article and stupid headline. Voters turn out the political leadership of Andhra Pradesh, home to capital high-tech city Hyderabad, because too many feel left out of the high-tech boom. Does that constitute turning a ìcold shoulderî to technology? Far from it. It simply means spreading the wealth becomes a political mandate after a while.

India is a microcosm of the world and the globalization process: its high-tech Cores must absorb the huge Gap lying all around them. Wonít happen overnight, but progress must be seen and the Cores must both expand in size and be receptive to outsiders knocking on the door for more than hotel cleaning and restaurant cooking jobs. India is a real bell-weather for globalizationís advance: if it succeeds there, itíll make it anywhere.

Japan: no "foreign" gangsters allowed

"Foreigners Try to Melt an Inhospitable Japanese City," by James Brooke, New York Times, 12 May, p. A4.

Globalization is encroaching on inner Japan, or those small cities far from the maddening crowds of sophisticated Tokyo. And it is scaring the locals to the point of demanding separate seating areas in restaurants, separate sauna facilities, etc. ìJapanese onlyî signs abound, and local police set up ìsnitch sitesî where locals can report suspicious foreign behavior online, such as causing ìanxietyî in your neighborhood.

Since Russians constitute a good portion of such foreigners, especially in the north, there is a special variant of ìstay outî signs that read, ìNo gangsters allowed in this place.î As for tourists, one local governor had to apologize recently for calling them ìsneaky thievesî in public.

As Japan ages dramatically in coming years and is forced to import more and more non-Japanese labor, this still hermetic society is going to change quite profoundly. I felt myself lucky to have lived briefly in Soviet Russia in the mid-1980s. I think anyone who wants to see the ìrealî Japan before its gets its globalization make-over better move quickly, because the biological clock is ticking.

GMO's taste good when you're starving

"Economic Focus: Feeding the Hungry (In the fourth of a series of articles on the Copenhagen Consensus project, we look at hunger and malnutrition)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 74.

This prestigious effort at thinking about the future of the Gap regions says there are no one silver bullet to stop hunger, but only a judicious mix of many remedies, like better prenatal care, better nutrition for the youngest kids, tackle the problem of vitamin deficiencies, and improve agricultural technology, which means using more higher-yielding cropsóoften genetically improved.

Guess which one has the highest payoff at the fastest rate? Improving ag technology.

This is why I say pushing bio-engineered crops is a key Core goal in foreign aid directed at the Gap.

Kirkus Reviews may label me ìStrangeloveanî for saying so, but I can live with that.

Following the money: Brazil and Vietnam

"Brazil: An underpowered economy (Lula's government is trying to remove obstacles to investmentóbut not fast enough)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 35.

"Vietnam's economy: The good pupil (Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing countries in Asia)," The Economist, 8 May, p. 39.

Two articles preaching the same point: synchronize your internal rule sets to that of the emerging global rule sets and foreign direct investment will come your way. Vietnam is doing this, and by ramping up its intake of FDI it is the fastest growing economy in Asia after FDI-magnet China. Meanwhile, Brazil is languishing in growth because left-leaning Lula isnít moving fast enough to attract the FDI needed to keep building up the nationís energy infrastructure. In 2001, $20B was invested in energy infrastructure throughout Brazil, with two-thirds being private-sector derived and half of that (or one-third of total investment) being FDI.

This is a common story for emerging markets: deny yourself access to FDI and you might as well take one-third or more off the top of any investment plans you may be dreaming of in the years ahead.

This is why FDI is one of my key four flows that define globalizationís advance (Chapter 4: The Core and the Gap).

Upcoming radio appearances (13-16 May)

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth, 12 May

Detroit Talk Radio 760 AM

Time: approx. 8:20 am (EST; 7:20 local) Thursday, 13 May

Station: ABC Radio/Detroit/WJR (760 AM; see host's personal page with archives @ http://www.wjr.net/paulsmith.asp)

Talking with: Paul W. Smith (morning show host)

Length: 7 to 10 minutes (live by phone)

Boston NPR's Here and Now

Time: approx. 12:20 pm (EST) Thursday, 13 May

Station: WBUR-Boston (listen online at www.wbur.org, or go to http://www.here-now.org/stations/ for listing of times and stations around country; or go to http://www.here-now.org/shows/ for audio archives afterwards)

Talking with: Gail Harris

Length: 7 to 10 minutes (taped by phone on 12 May)

Rochester MN's Tracy McCray Show

Time: 11 am (EST; 10am local) Friday, 14 May

Station: News-Talk 1340 KROC-AM (see her site @ http://www.tracymccray.com/)

Talking with: Tracy McCray

Length: approximately 55 minutes with usual breaks (live by phone)

Worcester NPR's Public Eye

Time: 10:30 pm (EST) Sunday, 16 May

Station: WICN-FM (NPR) 90.5 FM (see the site @ http://members.tripod.com/thepubliceye/)

Talking with: Al Vuono

Length: approximately 30 minutes (taped by phone on 11 May)

Tommy BartlettóLive on Fox!

Dateline: above the garage in Portsmouth RI, 11 May 2004

Funny end to a long day: brother Andrew (the Neo-Traditional Librarian) sends me posting on Fox News website touting my 4pm appearance on ìYour World w/Cavutoî and Iím listed as Thomas Bartlett, which is pretty funny to me, since Tommy Bartlett was probably the most famous Thomas in Wisconsin throughout my childhood. He pioneered the water-ski show as a form of mass entertainment and was more responsible than anyone else for creating the tourist destination known as the Wisconsin Dells.

Okay, okayónot exactly Walt Disney. But he was THE reeaaallly beeeg shoe! when I was growing up.

Driving all the way to Watertown MA in afternoon traffic is a lot for someone living on the island, but youíve got to jump at the chance for national TV. Unfortunately, Fox didnít mention the book at all, so I worked it into one of my answers. Predictably, the first question was about the beheading of Nick Berg. But if you want to get on the news, you gotta talk about todayís newsósimple as that.

Amazon number back down to 46 as of 2130 [Check that! 44 at 2226!], so clearly the WSJ profile had some impact. That, plus a national TV appearance and four regional radio shows, and I almost feel like Iím back on tour.

The best the book did during the tour was 42 on the morning of 29 April, two days after the book officially went on sale. I must say, the forties are looking pretty good again.

Meanwhile, some articles attract my attention . . .

REFERENCES:

ìTaste of Change in North Korea: Pyongyangís Experiment With Consumerism Bears Some Success,î by Bertil Lintner, Wall Street Journal, 11 May, p. A16.

ìU.S. Training North Africans to Uproot Terrorists: Military See Vast Region as Possible Magnet for Al Qaeda Recruits,î by Craig S. Smith, New York Times, 11 May, p. A1.

ìAn Abundance of Caution And Years of Budget Cuts Are Seen to Limit C.I.A.,î by Douglas Jehl, NYT, 11 May, p. A18.

ìWorld Markets Fall; Lows for Year in U.S.,î by Jonathan Fuerbringer, NYT, 11 May, p. C1.

ìMaking the World Safer, One Client at a Time: Terrorism Aside, Danger is Everywhere,î by Harry Hurt III, NYT, 11 May, p. C12.

ìFrance Splits With Europe Over Farm Subsidy Plan,î by Paul Meller, NYT, 11 May, p. W1.

ìIraqi Scouts Thrive Despite Tyranny, War,î by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, FOXNews.com, 11 May, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,119658,00.html.