Saleh agrees to step down in Yemen - we think
Sunday, April 24, 2011 at 10:53AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in Citation Post, Middle East

Good and smart deal, if it holds.  Immunity for himself and family.  In the grand scheme of things, this is a good give on the part of the opposition.  From the WAPO story:

Under a proposal by neighboring Arab states, Saleh would resign from office 30 days after a formal agreement has been signed. If Saleh, a vital U.S. counterterrorism ally, keeps his pledge, it would mark a rare negotiated transfer of power in a region where autocrats are increasingly resisting calls for their ouster by using violence and repression to suppress populist rebellions that are transforming the Middle East and North Africa.

Complaints from HR groups and youth movement reps, but getting him gone without substantially more violence is more important than prosecuting him for several dozen deaths.

The world should take note WRT Egypt, where Mubarak and family face a host of charges, and Libya, where negotiating the ultimate departure of the Qaddafis will invariably involve compromise.  I believe in the whole "truth commission" approach, but I think the information itself is more important than the defendants - especially in the Middle East where a zero-sum political mindset prevails.  You want to create a culture in which former leaders do okay, so better to establish the precedent - even at a loss - with current ones rather than make an example out of them.  Yes, exile them, but if we want to keep the ball rolling on this, better not to present the targeted leader with too dire a choice.

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