Projection, mind you, from WSJ's gov sources, but one that shows the difference between connectivity and the lack thereof.
Iran's oil-field problems predate its recent standoff with the West and the latest round of sanctions. Revolution and eight years of fighting with neighbor Iraq through the 1980s took their toll, with output plunging from a high of 6 million barrels a day from the mid-1970s. Oil infrastructure was damaged, and oil expertise fled the country. Many of Iran's oil fields are older than those of their Mideast neighbors, and so are declining much faster.
Iran has to replace roughly 300,000 barrels a day of production each year from old fields just to keep its total output from falling.
More recently, many foreign oil companies—sought out by Tehran for their expertise and capital—have been deterred by the increased politicization of Iran's energy sector under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who came to power in 2005.
Only the pinheads imagine the Big Bang strategy purely in military terms.