NYT Week-in-Review analysis by Rob Nordland.
Start:
There’s no way we can kill our way out of Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the American commander, has said. By now, that’s become a mantra.
“One thing we are all hearing, especially between now and next year, is that there is no military solution to this conflict,” said Staffan de Mistura, the new special representative of the United Nations secretary general to Afghanistan. “The Taliban will never win the war, and on the other side, they’ll never win either.”
So everyone talks about peace, but so far no one is actually talking peace. The obstacles to doing so are profound and in many ways as daunting as the prospect of a military solution.
The recent, three-day jirga disappointed: no insurgents invited and Karzai supporters stuffed in.
Bigger problems:
Both sides have red lines that make talks seemingly impossible. The Taliban’s official position is that all foreign forces must leave before any talks can begin, and constitutional change must be on the table. The government insists that the Afghan Taliban must first renounce connections with Al Qaeda and agree to accept the constitution. (By “constitution,” read women’s rights — anathema to the Taliban, and a prerequisite for Afghanistan’s Western supporters.)
The fear is that the situation only grows more hardline on the other side: aging Taliban leaders replaced by the nastier, less-prone-to-negotiate younger cadre.
More and more, officials and officers are describing Obama's summer 2011 deadline to start withdraws as fungible.
Good to hear.