The Gaza blockade mostly empowers Hamas
Thursday, June 17, 2010 at 1:23AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in Citation Post, Israel, Middle East

Some tough-love advice from The Economist to Israel:  the Gaza blockade makes you weaker and strengthens Hamas's ability to keep a firm grip on power in Gaza.

As usual, a strategy of disconnecting your enemy from the outside world empowers those ruling elements who prefer a firm grip over the masses to their individual empowerment.

More prosaically, the blockade has failed in all of its goals:  the Israeli solder taken hostage is still a hostage, weapons galore still make their way into Gaza via tunnels, Israel is becoming more isolated diplomatically while Hamas is winning sympathy and still overshadowing the far more quiet and more competent West Bank Palestinian leadership.  In short, all trends are heading south.

Obama is under fire here for "ruining" the relationship, but it's hard to see how he's guilty of anything more than simply realizing Netanyahu is no friend of the US and has no intention to pursue peace.  So Obama cuts his losses and the relationship suffers.  To me, that's a sensible choice given all he has on his plate regionally. And if that logic pushes Israel to bomb Iran, then so be it, because that'll just be another regional dynamic that he cannot control--especially when the Saudis collude to make it possible.

All of this is presented as tragedy, because Israel is the best thing about the Middle East in just about every other way.  It is a connectivity hub in all relevant forms. It is, putting aside the Palestinian questions, the most admirable nation-state in the region--by far.

Where to go? Obama is encouraged to get Hamas back to the negotiating table. I see that as a useless proposition.

Given the losing hand it holds right now, I can foresee Israel making the logical leap to pounding Iran. Not much to lose and better dynamics to trigger. And I say this believing quite deeply that most of Israel's leadership knows they are heading--unavoidably--to a nuclear standoff with Iran that will soon be joined by others.

Given the situation Israel finds itself in now, I would say that migrating events down that path and establishing its tough profile on that subject would make a lot of sense.

Article originally appeared on Thomas P.M. Barnett (https://thomaspmbarnett.com/).
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