Newsweek piece.
The call-out text tells you everything you need to know: “The fertility rate in Mexico has undergone one of the steepest declines in history.”
Leveraging Michael Barone, I made this point in “Blueprint for Action”: There is a combination of decreasing birthrate and increasing per capita income that usually turns off the emigrant flow out of any developing economy.
With Mexico, these developments are tied to the progressive economic integration of the northern Mexican states with the US economy.
No, that doesn’t mean the flow of illegals from the South goes away completely just because Mexico is leveling off. Over time, I think it simply means people are both traveling farther to get to the US and, in some measure, stopping when they hit the improving conditions in Mexico.
Per the piece:
A little-known, but enormously significant, demographic development has been unfolding south of the our border. The fertility rate in Mexico—whose emigrants account for a majority of the United States’ undocumented population—has undergone one of the steepest declines in history, from about 6.7 children per woman in 1970 to about 2.1 today, according to World Bank figures. That makes it roughly equal to the U.S. rate . . ..
It will go even lower than that replacement rate in coming years. Point is, Mexico will have less and less trouble absorbing its new workers as they age into employment.
The same is happening, to a lesser degree, throughout the rest of Latin America.
Bottom line: immigration won’t remain a problem/advantage forever, so opening the brand back up for expansion will ultimately make sense to enough Americans. Why? That great demographic input will diminish just as the Boomers begin retiring in bulk, meaning our labor force could start shrinking in some parts of the country as early as 2015, according to experts cited in the piece.
One academic: “I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona starts pleading for Mexican workers who can help them in their retirement homes.”