OPINION: "The 'Global Imbalances' Myth," by Zachary Karabell, Wall Street Journal, 21 December 2009.
EDITORIAL: "How to rebalance the world economy: the job ahead is to make the global recovery sustainable," Financial Times, 23 December 2009.
Bad logic from Karabell, who, unlike Ferguson, seems unwilling to part with his "Chimerica"-like notion of "superfusion" between the U.S. and Chinese economies. Thus he feels the need to attack the idea of balancing by saying that a perfect balance is unachievable and therefore effort in that direction is pointless--truly doofus logic.
If I have high cholesterol but cannot achieve a perfect average number for my age and size, does that mean I still don't try to lower it?
The tortured logic here extends to trying to prove that the recent financial contagion was completely unrelated to the imbalance--also goofy. The underlying cheapness of money caused the bad behavior, pure and simple. Saying we should have known better is cute, but irrelevant. The incentives were simply perverse and they'll remain as such so long as the imbalance is that profound.
The crux of the crude logic here:
Today's consensus sounds very much like the orthodoxy of yesteryear--let each nation be its own system in equilibrium, interacting with other systems to create one mega-balanced system. Yet such balance has only existed in theory and only ever will.
That is about as pure as straw man as you can construct--truly beautiful and completely irrelevant to the discussion.
Apparently, Karabell is deeply worried the CCP will shift its economy too fast--another spurious, straw-man fear with no basis in observed reality.
Guy really wants to sell his book, which I understand, but this comes close to intellectual prostitution.
I will stick with the FT's logic that "China is too important to continue with its present policy of pegging the renminbi to a weakening dollar."
Is it unfair to ask China to change, asks the FT? Maybe. "But it is the price of having become a huge economic power."
Talk to Spiderman's uncle, Mr. Karabell.*
* 'With great power comes great responsibility.'