OPINION: "Why Oil Still Has a Future," by Daniel Yergin, Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2009.
It's always about demand and thus price and thus technology afforded. Right now, "demand in the developing world trumps new technology." And with oil becoming a financial asset, in addition to an important commodity, volatility naturally increases dramatically.
Will this situation go away any time soon? 85% of oil demand growth in 2000-2007 was from emerging markets. Since there's no rolling back growth, there's only new technology to pursue.
My point: look to the East for these breakthroughs, not the West.
Remember, says Yergin, this is only about transportation, not all-important electricity, where oil is responsible for only 2% of generation.