NATIONAL WEEKLY EDITION: "Bet on Neda's Side," by David Ignatius, Washington Post, 29 June-12 July 2009.

Citing Jack Goldsone, a GMU prof who studies revolutions, we are told to expect three stages: 1) members of elite defect and form an opposition (that's why the Qum imams breaking ranks does matter); 2) the nation polarizes and coalitions are formed; and 3) mass mobilization.

We see all three happening now. It just won't unfold overnight.

The upside for Obama? "A weakened Iran may seek the validation and legitimacy that would come from negotiations with the United States."

This goes along with my comparison of the PRC after its exhausting Cultural Revolution.