ARTICLE: Ahmadinejad Vows New Start As Clashes Flare, By Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post, June 14, 2009

That is an impressive first-round win that means: 1) the nuke program goes ahead; and 2) the Supreme Leader is nowhere near ready to reform the economy, so no desire to deal externally.

My hope had always been that this was a regime far enough along in understanding how screwed-up its economy is (USSR circa 84-86), but we are clearly still in the early 1980s/Brezhnevian clueless phase when belief in external enlargement of influence is held to be a strong counterweight to internal decline.

I would expect Tehran to offer more of the same. Ahmadnejad, I don't think, was promoted by the SL for any Nixon-like opening.

Hence, Israel is highly incentivized to attack this year.