FEATURE: "Pakistan's Fatal Shore," by Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic, May 2009.

Gwadar, the strategic port, either serves as gateway to Central Asia's riches or simply as another node in Pakistan's looming civil war, says Kaplan.

It's another one of those thoughtful pieces that leads one to believe that Pakistan simply cannot survive in a globalized world. It is a fake state slated for conflict and then dismemberment and resurrection in some new, different form. Kaplan explicitly raises the specter of a "Yugoslavia-in-the-making."

As always, in this part of the world, Pakistan's resource riches are concentrated in some obscure corner occupied--restively--by a tiny fraction of its population: here, the Baluch that make up less than 4 percent.

China's dreams of a secure port are illusory, so sayeth the rebellious Baluch. Beijing has no idea of the mess it's getting into.

The article is essentially a travelogue, but Kaplan is best in this form, interspersing the reportage with bits of strategic analysis.

The call-out text warning from a Baluchi leader:

If we keep fighting, we will ignite an intifada like the Palestinians . . . Pakistan is not eternal. It is not likely to last.

In a nutshell, this is my core reason for saying our entire approach to AFPAK should favor Indian interests one helluva lot more than Pakistani interests.

India is real, Pakistan is not.