MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: "Iraq and its Kurds: Not so happy; The new strength of Iraq's central government is alarming the Kurds," The Economist, 21 February 2009.

Overview of coming Arab-Kurd tensions.

My guess, as I have stated before, is that the Kurds will learn to settle for the three provinces they currently have and give in on Mosul and Kirkuk.

Oddly enough, the emerging wildcard here is Turkey, which ends up being more supportive of Kurdish positions that you might intuit.

If the "second Saddam" does appear in Iraq (an old scenario of mine from PNM), then the KRG suddenly becomes the buffer for Turkey, in addition to being an investment beach head and a gateway--ultimately--to the underserved market called Iran.