ARTICLE: Iran's Nuclear Program: Deciphering Israel's Signals, By Ehud Yaari, PolicyWatch, November 5, 2009

Gist:

The current assessment in Israel is that although the Iranian regime long ago decided to get "within reach" of a bomb and is doing its utmost to move toward this objective, no decision has yet been made to go for a "breakout." The reason is that Iran would not risk the consequences of a breakout for a bomb or two but rather would only contemplate such a dramatic step when it had enough low-enriched uranium for a modest "arsenal" of about a half dozen bombs.

This fits the logic of a country seeking a deterrent capability. If you're truly a religious nut, then you reach for 1-2 bombs as quickly as possible and pull the trigger pronto.

(Via WPR Media Roundup)