ARTICLE: Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb, By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER, New York Times, October 3, 2009

Again, this fits with the model that says Iran is looking for just enough deterrence capability to get itself into the great-power game.

Remember: guns (missiles) are relatively easy, and bullets (bombs) even more so. It's the gunpowder (enriched uranium) that is the hardest. Unless you're really optimistic on the last point, everything points to a break-out capacity being already extant.