Ice Station Zebra--the sequel!
Friday, September 7, 2007 at 7:07AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: “Drawing lines in melting ice: Despite the ungainly scramble for a slice of the Arctic’s tantalizing riches, no nation can master the region alone,” The Economist, 18 August 2007, p. 51.

Nice summary of the dynamics here, with rising commodity and energy prices as the obvious drivers, along with the warming trend.

Russia’s “facts on the ground” approach of planting a titanium flag is cute, but a bit antiquated.

Then there’s America’s waking up to the fact that it never bothered to sign the Law of the Sea due to the usual goofy Senate fears of “loss of sovereignty.” Ah, the fear of global bureaucracies may fade when the dollar sign grows so large!

The Economist wonders if that oft-quoted notion that 25% of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas is located in the Arctic is actually true. A truly systematic survey awaits.

But the reality is that the transportation savings alone make the warmer Arctic highly valuable to all potential claimants.

I guarantee you that I’ll soon be sitting through some defense brief that claims we’re looking at a serious potential for great power conflict over the region and its riches. It’ll be complete BS, but I guarantee you I’ll see it.

The reality will be cooperation, as this article argues, simply because it’s a nasty, truly unconquerable environment that demands it.

Still, as I contemplate my likely old age, I’ve often dreamed that my clean-freakiness, when combined with fabulous wealth (I can dream) would make me a wonderful candidate for Howard Hughes-like reclusiveness.

And I’m a big Patrick McGoohan fan . . .

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