ARTICLE: Bush setting America up for war with Iran, By Philip Sherwell in New York and Tim Shipman in Washington, Telegraph, 17/09/2007

This is how I would expect it to go as well: build the case, strike just over border, wait for response to justify larger strikes and then light them up.

If Iran falls for it?

Then, quite frankly, the mullahs get what they deserve for being such dumb-asses. They should be seeking some serious international insulation, but instead they allow Ahmadinejad's mouth to dig the graves of those citizens who will inevitably die. Not that they care. In fact, it suits their purposes quite nicely.

Persian arrogance is a consistent historical theme, and this time it may have met its match in an administration that feels it has nothing to lose in its remaining days.

I mean, think about it: two wars, neither of which have gotten America the outcomes it sought (al-Qaeda crippled, Iraq secure and democratic), so where's the legacy downside for Bush on Iran?

There is none.

It has always been very stupid to bet against America being unable to bounce back. We strike Iran and there's a lot of happy Sunni dictatorships and one very estatic Israel, all of whom will go out of their way to show some thanks and gin up an appropriately grateful PR blitz. Much sand gets kicked up and even if we don't set Iran's nuke program back at all (highly likely), we've sent our signal (our failures in postwar Iraq don't mean our Leviathan still can't bomb at will).

We're so freaked out over Ahmadinejad's "messiah returning" complex when our president has just as strong religious beliefs, a clear sense that time is running out on his term, and he's actually--unlike Ahmadinejad's weak presidential position--got the power to execute his will--and a real record of doing it.

Iran should be plenty scared of a large-scale military strike, but, of course, it's hardline leadership is not scared, because we could offer them no clearer stabilization program.

Ahmadinejad won't win re-election in 2009 without prompting such a strike, so I guess it has to happen.

I mean, if Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Tehran all want it to happen, who are we to say no?

(Thanks: Dan Hare)