OP-ED: 'The Road To Partition,' By David Brooks, New York Times, September 11, 2007

Great piece. I agree with Brooks: the ethnic cleansing is far more consummated than left hanging, so the genocide fears seem both OBE and premature. They're largely OBE in that they either continued or were locked in by the surge. They're premature in the sense that if the fighting is destined to resume, it won't matter how long we maintain the surge, that fight can reassert itself whenever desired, being easily postponed for as long as required.

In fact, it's certainly better for the Shia to put it off for as long as feasible, given their numbers and nearby support (Iran, which has backed all horses in the Shia race to date, just to be sure).

Iraq's soft partition is thus a fait accompli to all but the most unrealistic.

Nothing changes strategically with the surge (meaning Iran is still Iran, and it ain't going anywhere), except the U.S. Military validates its new COIN and the relevant operational experienced is further stockpiled, which serves many purposes in the future.

Petraeus' successes will weigh heavily against the historical record of the Bush Administration. 85 percent of our casualties have come after the "lost year" of May 03-Mar04. A COIN effectively employed coming right on the heels of the war would have made for a very different experience. The White House found religion all right; it just took inexcusably long to do so.

But, truth be told, there was no chance that either this administration nor this military could have or would have changed absent the initial failures, so the neocons' incompetence--as willful as it was--serves an ironic historical purpose: getting us the military they never wanted but which we've desperately needed.

(Thanks: Tyler Durden)