China's "soft power" only generates "hard dangers" and "soft opposition"
Saturday, June 2, 2007 at 6:49AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: "Miners' Daunting Task: Digging In Risky Zones; Scarce Copper Deposits Make Congo a Hot Spot; Demand vs. Danger," by Patrick Barta, Wall Street Journal, 31 May 2007, p. A1.

ADVERTISEMENT: "Beijing Games, Darfur Genocide: China's Only Publicizing Its Role In One," by SaveDarfur.org, New York Times, 30 May 2007, p. A11.

POLITICS & ECONOMICS: "U.S. Plays Weak Darfur Hand: Sanctions on Sudan Show Limit to Options; U.S. Is the Next Venue," by Yochi J. Dreazen, Wall Street Journal, 30 May 2007, p. A9.

Reading the book "Charm Offensive" about China's rising influence across Gap. Pretty good book that I'll review more formally in a column perhaps. It makes a good case but oversells the trajectory.

China's rising profile in the Gap is taking it to many places the Sovs once tread in their own dreamy period of spreading socialism to backward states. China has no such goals, but it will run into all the same problems. A hit-them-where-they-ain't strategy means you're always getting into bed with unstable partners. Once in and committed, you suffer them far more than they suffer you.

In short, China has no idea what it's getting itself into inside the Gap. Yes, money talks, but it does not cure what ails the Gap. That solution-set will often need to be far more comprehensive than either the U.S. or China is typically willing to put forward.

But put forward we must. The soft power blowback already begins on China's presence inside the Gap: NGOs and PVOs want to hold them accountable for things they cannot control and choose not to control. So the choice is being forced: learn how to control and improve these situations or suffer the asymmetrical consequences.

Remember, the more you connect, the more you are subject to code.

Pushing China in this direction benefits U.S. foreign policy greatly. It is clear that much of the Gap remains beyond our willingness to manage. We have weak hands in many places. All of those places, strangely enough, feature the potential for a far stronger China hand--if we so choose to develop it.

That's basically what Keating is after. It's basically what Mia Farrow is after.

It's what I've been after for a long time as well.

We live in a frontier age within which frontier allies must be sought: to kill our common enemies and to fix our common problems and to build our common future.

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