ARTICLE: Insurgencies Like Iraq's Usually Last 10 Years But Fail, Study Says, By Jim Michaels, USA Today, May 9, 2007, Pg. 8

Dupuy was always the best analyst on the long-term war trends.

The bottom line here: insurgencies don't win the majority of the time. And when they do? They set up nation-states of their own--same or smaller.

Technology does not change that dynamic. It just sizes it differently, as we see states multiply from below and agglomerate from above, the perfect example being more states in Europe plus the EU growing.

Not the death nor the hollowing out of nation-states, but their right-sizing through the reformatting process that is globalization.

One thing Robb's book made me realize: Core states tend to be bottom-heavy (more government below and thinner on top--e.g., the U.S. police structure), whereas Gap states tend to be top-heavy (and capital-centric to boot). The former structure disincentivizes the insurgent (the locals have vibrant local government), the latter is far more vulnerable to their penetration and supplanting.

Simply put, there is no hinterland in advanced states, politically speaking. Thus the frontier mentality on spreading rule sets inside the Gap, with the main foot soldiers coming from states currently building out their remaining political and economic hinterlands--New Core.

It's nothing we haven't seen before.

It's nothing we haven't done before.

And it's more back to the future than scary new era.