ARTICLE: “Rumsfeld Offers Strategies for Current War: Pentagon to Release 20-Year Plan Today,” by Josh White and Scott Tyson, Washington Post, 3 February 2006, p. A8.

ARTICLE: “$120 Billion More Is Sought For Military in War Zones,” by David S. Cloud, New York Times, 3 February 2006, p. A12.

ARTICLE: “Another $120B sought for wars: Rebuilding is extra; more requests likely,” by Richard Wolf, USA Today, 3 February 2006, p. 1A.

ARTICLE: “Army Pledges No Cutbacks in National Guard: Recruiting Shortfalls Led To Proposed Reductions,” Washington Post, 3 February 2006, p. A8.

ARTICLE: “Abizaid Credited With Popularizing the Term ‘Long War,’” by Bradley Graham and Josh White, Washington Post, 3 February 2006, p. A8.

My opinion of the QDR is that, like all before it, it’s a snapshot in time of the correlation of forces within the Defense Department. I see a Big Peace force on the rise in the Army and Marines, who seem themselves in a Long War where they’ll be forced to win most of the time “non-kinetically.” I see a Big War force that’s holding on in the Navy and Air Force solely because, unless forced to, Cold Warrior Don Rumsfeld will both “transform” in the right direction but still try to love all his children equally.

Rumsfeld’s strategy works only in a world where the White House says anything goes budget-wise because we’re “in a war.” But that won’t last, so the Big War force will lose ground to the Ground Pounders come the next administration, no matter who wins. You can’t blow off such massive debt for the long haul, because the rest of the world (especially the Chinese) won’t pay for it forever.

The rest of the world wants a Long Peace and wants that Big Peace force funded.

So, for now, “A’s” all around with a huge “F” for sustainability. It is unsustainable to buy a Big War force in a Small War world. It is unsustainable to expect the Chinese to pay for a Big War force directed primarily against them. It is unsustainable to deny ourselves the aid of major allies, to include China most of all (that body shop of a military). It is unsustainable not to do a better job gaining acceptance of our new security rule sets in this Long War because we’re so highhanded and arrogant in our application.

Bush sets the right course. He just does it a way that’s completely unsustainable, and to me, in the end, that’s bad grand strategy. Bush begins the Long War but he and his crew need to exit stage right before we can get seriously prepared to win it.

The Army is serious about moving in this direction, as is Special Operations Command and the Marines. For now, because the White House indulges them, neither the Air Force or the Navy has gotten with the program. When the Navy brags how its huge destroyers are justified because they can also insert SEALs, you know strategic logic has left the building.

So while Rumsfeld may choose to love all his children (i.e., the services) equally, given the complete lack of fiscal responsibility from above (still want to have a “CEO government”?), the having-it-all approach of this QDR is exactly NOT what the strategic doctor ordered, because it is so incredibly unsustainable. Amazingly, the QDR fails most profoundly in that which it was exactly designed to achieve: the art of the long view.

My prediction?

Army and Marines will continue to lead, providing the best generals, the best strategists, the best trainers and doctrinal entrepreneurs. These two services, along with SOCOM, will produce the bulk of the best and brightest in coming years. These generals will become the great movers and shakers.

Much of this moving and shaking will center first and foremost on training and doctrine, and over time this operational accumulation of reality will overshadow the dreams of the Air Force and Navy for a future force that’s only useful in futures worth avoiding. Acquisition will change most slowly, but over time those expensive and poorly justified programs of record will have fewer and fewer operational experiences, field manuals, scenarios, etc. to point at, connect with, or generally engage.

So celebrate while you can, Big War crowd, because this was your last great gasp. Too many Marines and soldiers will die in the meantime, but that’s what happens when you choose machines over men, Big War over the Big Peace, Leviathan over SysAdmin, and “communist” China over China our inevitable strategic partner.

You can’t deal with the future unless you let go of the past. We have three more years of this mindset, but then it’s gone.