Glimpse of future
Saturday, December 23, 2006 at 3:48AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: "Mesa Air to be first U.S. Carrier in China: Flights in time for Beijing Olympics," by Barbara De Lollis, USA Today, 22 December 2006, p. 4B.

A process we'll witness again and again.

Mesa wants into China's booming domestic air travel market and is smart enough to know you better be low-cost if you want to compete there (all of China's airlines are similar to Southwest in their frugality and no-fuss efficiency, thus I was completely at home flying there).

To get in, Mesa must agree to a joint venture with Shenzen Airlines.

My prediction: five years from now a merged Mesa-Shenzen will be flying in China, in the U.S., and elsewhere.

Power all over da' pyramid.

And yes, it will shock the hell out of some Americans to find themselves flying a partial Chinese airline some time down the road.

But it will happen. Predicted to me by a Southwest pilot in US Air Force reserve (one star), who said the same "flags of convenience" process we saw shipping go through years ago would inevitably be repeated in airlines. Why? Sheer routinization of the business. Once established, it ain't rocket science, and the most efficient global platforms will inevitably rise in the biggest markets.

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