Limited regret yields limited effect
Sunday, October 1, 2006 at 2:28PM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: Ruined Towns Look to Beirut, Mostly in Vain, by By Michael Slackman, New York Times, October 1, 2006

Hezbollah's strategy of divide-and-conquer appears to be paying off. NATO troops won't be disarming anybody and that $900 m in reconstruction aid can't be spent in the areas most destroyed because the Lebanese government's writ doesn't extend there.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah's certainly grows tighter, as Iran's oil money finds purchase there.


Bottom line: one side has fielded a solid SysAdmin force in southern Lebanon and the other side is MIA, afraid to pick a fight with the real power there. This is the outcome of Israel's employment of the defunct Powell Doctrine (pound hard conventionally, but avoid any ownership of the second half, declaring "victory" in your pullout).


Limited regret yields limited effect yields limited outcomes. Third-generation strategy for a Fourth-generation war. Such is the state of our "wisdom" (and "wise men").


Hezbollah and Iran continue to size our SysAdmin force--if anyone cares to notice.

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