■"U.S.-Chinese trade relations get trickier: Security concerns put pressure on already-testy relationship," by David J. Lynch, USA Today, 13 September 2005, p. 1B.
■"Japan's Rivalry With China Roils A Crowded Sea," by Norimitsu Onishi and Howard W. French, New York Times, 11 September 2005, p. A1.
■"Mexico Builds Trade Ties With China: Hu Furthers Quest For Latin Resources," by James C. McKinley Jr., New York Times, 13 September 2005, p. A3.
■"China's State Secrets Agency Will Guard One Less: Death Tolls," by Joseph Kahn, New York Times, 13 September 2005, p. A3.
■"China Promotes 'Peaceful Rise' to Quell U.S. Fears," by Charles Hutzler, Wall Street Journal, 13 September 2005, p. A15.
USA has obligatory story on rising China and rising tensions to mark Hu's visit to U.S. (very small summit--just a handshake with Bush off-line at UN session). Good overview, really. Scariest line is from Bonnie Glaser, a China hand at CSIS: "Bush is really in danger of losing control over policy toward China in the economic realm." There's Congress getting all jacked up. There's the Commerce Department with new rules on what can and cannot be sold to China, lest military advantanges accrue.
On that last one, nasty signals are being sent: Sell to China and risk being called a traitor to national security. One DC-based trade lawyer says, "It sends a message to American investors to stay the hell out of the Chinese market."
Too bad with all those T-bills the Chinese buy, keeping our mortgage rates low. Too bad that two out of every three American companies polled say their business in China is as good or better than their business prospects globally, so most (75%) plan on doing more business there in coming years.
Still, as my old Harvard buddy and top China scholar Minxin Pei says, "The post 9/11 honeymoon is definitely over . . . People are much more vocal about China."
Vocal is good. Complaining is good. Forcing new rules is good.
But casting China as our inevitably warring enemy is not good.
Japan's Right is hot to do this, as is their military. Too many of our own defense establishment is hot for this (the main subject of my piece in the November issue of Esquire that I'm in final edits on right now with Warren). And Taiwan is everyone's favorite pawn in this process: China's, America's, Japan's. Taiwan itself is almost an afterthought. It's all about managing China's "rise."
Of course, not everyone seeks to manage that. Some, like virtually every ally we have (to include Japan) are trying to make money off that like crazy. Japan's Right may want to fight China over sea lanes (Christ! Doesn't the U.S. Navy do anything in the region? Like keep everyone cool on sea lanes and energy flows? Isn't it at least good for that? And if it is, then why the rhetorical heat and shows of force by China and Japan on this subject? Is Pacific Command doing its job or not?), but it's business community just wants to make money and use China more and more as its manufacturing floor. Rising China lifts Japan's boat more than most.
But it will lift boats in NAFTA too: U.S. companies, Canadien and Mexican raw materials and energy industries. Pretty soon it'll just be a few Pentagon hawks who aren't making any money on China's rise, and then where will Western civilization be?
Making too much money I guess.
China works hard to become more transparent over time, but it ain't easy. Long history of authoritarianism. But there are some real visionaries on their side, like Zheng Bijian, my host for a talk last year in Beijing at the China Reform Forum. Great profile of him in the WSJ today. He's the man behind the whole "peacefully rising China" theory, he and a bunch of his scholars and thinkers at his little, Central Committee-supported think tank China Reform Forum. Connected guy. Connected little think tank. Important guy. It was a real privilege and an historical opportunity of note for me to connect up with the China Reform Forum. I hope to do so again.
If the peacemakers don't prevail on China and the U.S., then globalization's future is put at risk. Millions upon millions upon millions upon millions will suffer premature deaths in that pathway. More than we'd ever be able to count. None of us should forget that military-market nexus. It all connects. It all matters.
And in the future, it'll all be a Sino-American alliance.