■"Hints of Thaw Between China and Vatican," by Elizabeth Rosenthal, International Herald Tribune, 22 May 2005, sent by reader Kevin Hall.

■"China Opens Travel to Taiwan: In a Bid to Ease Tensions, Tourists Allowed to Visit Island," by Edward Cody, Washington Post, 21 May 2005, p. A16.

The Vatican and the Forbidden City are "actively exploring the re-establishment of diplomatic relations," according to the Times. Apparently things had progressed to the point where, last year on his sick bed, John Paul received a "quasi-official" Chinese delegation. Ties were cut in 1951 (my second-grade nun spent years there in the 1950s under house arrest), and the recent talks have been going on since early 2004.

What's the trade? The Vatican gets to select bishops in China, and Beijing gets the Pope to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

What is Benedict's thinking? Recently he spoke of pushing for ties with countries currently lacking them, and this was seen as a clear indication of his desire.

The system that would ensue would be, it is thought, similar to the Vatican's deal with Vietnam: the Pope picks the bishops and then the government officially appoints them.

The Taiwanese Catholics are described by one expert on the issue as "psychologically prepared."

Why this interests me so beyond the obvious reasons: one of the predictions of cultural tipping points that I offered in the 2000 report of TheNewRuleSets.Project on foreign direct investment was a reestablishment of diplomatic ties with the Vatican. I knew some Catholics who had been involved in quiet entreaties from our side, and was told that while it seemed fantastic at the time, it would very likely happen in the next decade or soóGod willing.

Here's the slide from the original briefing:

Find the whole package at Foreign Direct Investment Roadshow Slides in my NewRuleSets.Project site (my old Naval War College project, not my new consultancy).

Obviously, one prediction already comes true, as Beijing got the '08 Olympics. As for the reconciliation with Japan over Manchuria, that one's still out there waiting to happen. As the economics bring the two countries together, the nationalism rises, and we have to wait until that tension gets truly dysfunctional for the connectivity to trump the old pain.

Meanwhile, on another front, Beijing announces it is willing to allow Chinese tourists to journey to Taiwan on packaged trips. This must have been the give to the opposition party leaders who recently visited Beijing. Some more of the sweet offensive following the sour anti-secession law passed in MarchÖ