■"The Tipping Points: Three new stories in the Middle East," by Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 27 February 2005, p. A13.
■"Why Not Here? Bush changes the subject, worldwide," by David Brooks, New York Times, 26 February 2005, p. A27.
■"New Palestinian Cabinet takes office: President Abbas shows strength in selection process," by Mohammed Daraghmeh, New York Times, 25 February 2005, p. 8A.
■"Rice Calls Off Mideast Visit After Arrest Of Egyptian," by Joel Brinkley, New York Times, 26 February 2005, p. A13.
■"Mubarek Pushes Egypt To Allow Freer Elections: After 50 Years of One-Party Rule, Move to Amend the Constitution," by Neil MacFarquhar, New York Times, 27 February 2005, p. A1.
When Friedman dials down the hysteria on "World War III" and "neo-greens," you remember that he's a world-class journalist who got his start analyzing the Middle East. Here he offers three points of hope in the Middle East, three places where the issue has been reframed, in Gladwellian vernacular: Iraqi is now about an Iraqi government, freely elected, not the U.S.-led occupation; Lebanon is not about when Syria is going to leave, following the response to the assassination of the former PM; and the Israel-Palestinian conflict has shifted from Sharon-the-obstructionist to Abbas the leader of a truly technocratic leadership (nearly half have PhDs) that replaces the decades of corruption that was the Arafat-led Fatah.
David Brooks made the same basic point the day before, scooping ol' Tom a bit, but both of them were scooped by the stunning news out of Alexandria where Hosni Mubarek had a speech of his read in the parliament, calling for multiparty elections by the end of the year! Was a tipping point reached with the arrest of the opposition leader recently, followed by the obvious snub by Rice? Perhaps coincidental, perhaps meaningful. Clearly, Mubarek saw the handwriting on the wall with Saddam's fall and his own attempts to anoint a son as successor meeting growing resistance.
This is a stunning development, truly historic if it holds. Direct elections in Egypt, a country dominated by a single party quite effectively for half a century, simply do not happen without the decision to topple Saddam and trigger the Big Bang. Egypt is not just the region's most populous state, it is the center of the Arab world. This, following real elections in Iraq and Palestine, tells us all that Bush's decisionóif argued poorlyówas a good one. Not just necessary but good. Not just inevitable but good. Not just strategic but good.
Not just the good opening tag line for an article, but the inescapable logic of the Pentagon's new map. It doesn't belong to anyone, least of all America, but it's there and it must be addressed. Give Bush the credit he deserves for starting this process. The Gap will be shrunk in chunks, and we're watching a big one move right now. Not dominoes, my friends, but connectivity. Egypt will rejoin the world with this election, and Mubarek will reconnect to a legacy worth creating.