■"Chemical Disaster In China Fuels Pollution Worries: Environmental Minister Quits After Initial Slow Response; Russia Braces for the Slick," by Rebecca Blumenstein and Jason Dean, Wall Street Journal, 3-4 December 2005, p. A1.

In the Conclusion "Blogging the Future," in the "by 2010" entries:

"China's 'Black Summer' Triggers Unprecedented Social Unrest; Tipping Point Seen"

I spent one long, hot August traveling through China last year, and I can personally vouch for the fact that it suffers the most amazingly high levels of air pollution I have ever endured. Guangzhou, described as China's "Los Angeles," suffers smog that effectively blots out both sky and sun, even on what are theoretically cloudless days! Between the constant headaches, sore throats, and stuffed heads, it is simply hard-physically-to live in Guangzhou. Not surprisingly, nineteen of the twenty-five most polluted cities in the world are located in Asia, with nine in China alone. A tipping point is coming on environmental stress in China, one we've seen before in industrializing countries as the masses simply begin to recognize a clear trade-off between that extra slice of GDP per capita and the instinctive desire to be able to suck in a chestful of air without it burning. The grassroots environmental movement is growing in China, and eventually some horrific example of mass suffering will trigger an explosion in political demands for something better.

Okay, so not as big as I posited, yet the international aspect angle will elevate it dramatically. In terms of political dynamics, this comes off like the SARS outbreak: usual Chinese repression of news, then political leaders get nervous, sack some leaders, and try to come clean PR-wise.

Watch this dynamic happen again and again, especially in the environmental realm, but also watch for a growing series of enviro debacles in China triggering increasingly more open tolerance by the government for grass-roots political activism on this subject.

Yes, it will be ugly, and get uglier over time, but remember, most progress and most pluralism comes through disasters and scandals--just like they did here in the States.