■"Is the new president truly an exterminator? Mahmoud Admadinejad's diatribe against Israel and the United States was made against a backlog of muddle, infighting and weakness," The Economist, 5 November 2005, p. 49.

■"Without a Fixed Leader, Iran's Oil Plans Stall," by Dow Jones Newswires, Wall Street Journal, 25 November 2005, p. A9.

So great to be reading The Economist again. So great to realize that my analysis of Iran and Ahmadinejad in particular is not at all exotic:

Ö it is arguable that Iran's leaders, by seeking to achieve a nuclear capacity for purposes that are (to say the least) ambiguous, are keener to secure their own regime's survival in the face of American hostility than they are to destroy the Israeli state. Indeed, despite Mr. Ahmadinejad's diatribe, they know that any serious attempt to attack Israel would be more likely to provoke a large-scale assault, perhaps terminal, on the Islamic republic.

Ahmadinejad's antics are costly. Foreign direct investment is zeroed-out right now in Iran, a country that needs, by most estimates, at least $20 billion in FDI if its oil and gas reserves are to be successfully exploited in coming years (12% of all known oil reserves and number 2 in gas after Russia). Capital has flown from its stock markets thanks to his rhetoric, going mostly to Dubai instead. A $3B deal with Japan to develop a big oil field is in danger, as is the $6B deal on a gas line through Pakistan to India, so long as the parliament keeps rejecting Ahmadinejad's sorry-ass picks for oil minister (three cronies teed up to date, three incompetents shot down to date).

You can't leverage anybody unless you can leverage something. Right now we leverage nothing in Iran. The countries that could leverage Iran (Japan, China, India) are not incentivized to do so, given their own great needs for secure access to energy (Sound familiar? It should, because it basically describes our relationship with the Saudis.).

We can definitely try to turn Iran into another Cuba. I'm just not sure we'll like that pathway, given all the other things we're trying to do in the region.

But have no doubt: where others sow only fear and loathing, I see real opportunity, right now, to start building a future worth creating in the region--using Iran.