Dateline: in the Shire, Indy, 29 October 2005

Had planned quiet weekend with kids, but a number of emails get under my skin, all running along the lines of "ARE YOU STILL HOT TO GIVE IRAN THE BOMB!"

This is, of course, all based on the current President's (Ahmadinejad) rather inflammatory statements at a pre-programmed, annual, "anti-Zionism" rally that's been held each year in Iran since the revolution.

As such, the timing of the hard-liner president's comments are taken by some, including hard-liners in our White House who display absolutely no imagination in dealing with Iran these 5 years, as proof positive that Iran with the bomb will torch Israel immediately, despite Israel having the bomb now for . . . I dunno . . . maybe a generation or longer and making no secret of weaponizing that capacity a very long time ago.

I've already made my explanation in a previous pair of blogs (one to note the amazing development of the Expediency Council, with loser-presidential candidate Rafsanjani as head, and another to deal with the current president's comments in light of that amazing apparent diminution of his governmental powers at the hands of the man he defeated in the election) about why I am less than impressed with these statements.

Yes, they were over-the-top, and yes, these comments will elicit all the usual condemnations, etc., from the UN, Israel, the U.S. and likeminded countries the world over.

But these statements, as calculated as they were (as well as perfunctory, given the venue, basically Iran's annual "death to Israel" holiday), ARE FULL OF SOUND AND FURY BUT BASICALLY SIGNIFY NOTHING!

Nothing, except that Ahmadinejad is definitely feeling scared about his standing vis-a-vis the mullahs (i.e., the creation of the Expediency Council to mediate and make final decisions on all disputes between the government and the mullahocracy). Rafsanjani was clearly brought in to make sure that Iran doesn't go too far in this WMD standoff with the West and especially the U.S.

How do I know this? Check out all his statement regarding the nuclear program and the ill-advised nature of Ahmadinejad's comments.

What we are watching here, just like we see it so many times recently in China on similar matters (e.g., Gen. So-and-Sing says, "We will nuke America!"), is an internal political struggle breaking out into the openness of foreign affairs.

This is a good sign, one that says our ability to manipulate the internal situation in Iran is far greater than we realize. But like the Miami Cubans have so often killed any such opportunity for effective manipulation of Castro's stale regime, so too do many Jews in this country suffocate any chance for clear-headed manipulation of what are obvious internal struggles within the Iranian regime by hyping the harshest statements they can find and proclaiming, "See! I TOLD YOU SO!"

And then there the hardline, anti-Chinese types in the Pentagon and on the Hill who tie our hands similarly with China when these things happen (as always, they reflect internal politics most of all, like the "stunning" passage of the anti-secession law there last spring).

My point in pointing all this out, is that Americans tend to think with their hearts instead of their heads on so many hot-button national security/foreign policy issues that interest groups in our system do far more harm than good WRT to our foreign policy and security strategy. People who seek to think both long-term and strategically are thus constantly under attack by the Chicken Littles of all varieties who forever see their particular section of the sky falling.

Grand strategy is not something you change every time some dictator spouts off some new nonsense, whether it's good or bad. Grand strategy isn't about the next two weeks, or even the next year, but about thinking far ahead about what you want in this world, and then manipulating others (instead of being manipulated so unceasingly by them) to get what you want.

I have never talked about "giving Iran the bomb."

Iran is getting the bomb on this current trajectory, and we are playing into the hard-liners' hands in Iran right now.

And THEY'RE PLAYING US LIKE CHILDREN WHEN WE RESPOND TO EVERY SINGLE TAUNT THEY DECIDE TO THROW OUT.

People need to grow up. American needs to grow up. We need to be able to think strategically, without being so casually manipulated and turned against our real strategic interests every time some loud-mouth cares to do so.

If you want a stable Middle East, then Iran will be part of that. Iran can get the bomb if it so chooses, and eventually, inevitably, it will have it.

The only question that remains, as I have said time and time again, is: What are we going to get in return?

Because if we get nothing in return, then we're fools, and easily manipulated fools at that.