Bush recognizes a System Perturbation in Pakistan when he sees one--now
Tuesday, October 11, 2005 at 8:24PM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

"Pakistan Appeals for Help as Rescuers Dig By Hand: Amid New Jolts, Grim Searches in the Rain," by Somini Sengupta, New York Times, 10 October 2005, p. A1.

"Showing Speed And Loyalty, Bush Mobilizes Aid to Pakistan," by David E. Sanger, New York Times, 10 October 2005, p. A12.


"Enemy nations put fight aside after quake: Pakistan says it will accept India's help," by Zafar M. Sheikh, USA Today, 11 October 2005, p. 10A.


That Pakistani death total racing toward (past?) 50,000 certainly puts the "unprecedented human tragedy" of Katrina in perspective, doesn't it?


Back to my point that some readers mocked during the high point of that real disaster: name a country in the world where you'd rather live through a natural disaster? We fuss, we fight, some of us loot, but at the end of the day you're overwhelmingly likely to be alive in America. That simply isn't the care in the vast majority of the rest of the world.


So Osama gets a breather but Bush the compassionate conservative does not. Aiding Pakistan is a perfect expression of compassionate (the aid) and conservative (giving it to a tough-guy ally in the Global War on Terrorism): real but sensitive.


So the White House is eager to show that three times makes it more charming after the Tsunamis and Katrina, and America's overworked SysAdmin forces get worked over again.


But tell me what choice the U.S has? It's the worst disaster in Pakistan's history. You either show you care or you don't show your face.


And frankly, we'd put in the effort even if OBL was hiding somewhere else. We are a generous people when connectivity between cause and effect is made clear to us.


Rest assured, the $50 million promised early on is just the opening bid. Indonesia scored much higher for a disaster that probably weighs in at far less on the catastrophe scale, when all is said and done, so you know the Islamic world will be watching to see if we short Islamabad.


No, no, Islamawaygood on this one.


The regime has been trying, and our debt on the military side of the nexus has never truly been met by our quid pro quos on the market side. Yes, we have a free trade agreement with Pakistan, but it has little impact. So far, the military-dominated regime has very little to show for doing our dirty work against the Sovs all those years and now being forced to clean up the very same mess;.


Bush better follow through big time on this one. Pay now with money, save troops lives later.


In the end, though, the real strategic winner should be India. It will seek to play a big role in disaster relief, and in its desperation, Pakistan will let it happen. This will propel the recent rapprochement to new heights. Yes, yes, for now Pakistan turns down offers of helos and joint rescue ops, but these nuts will crack soon enough.

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