When FDI comes a knockin' in the Gap
Thursday, September 16, 2004 at 11:34AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

"Investing in Basics in Europe's War Zone: Srebrenica Fruit Warehouse Represents a Sign of Hope Amid Bosnian War Ravages," by Beth Kampschror, Wall Street Journal, 16 September 2004, p. A15.

"Laos Is Looking Like a Gold Mine to Foreigners: Boom in Commodity Prices Draws Investments by Mining Companies Straining to Find New Deposits," by Patrick Barta, Wall Street Journal, 16 September 2004, p. C1.


It doesn't sound like much, just a fruit produce warehousing and shipping facility, but it's the only Foreign Direct Investment to date in scary old Srebrenica (as a rep from the Swedish company admitted, "Just the name Srebrenica gives you the chills."). Why wouldn't it? "More than 1,000 of the estimated 8,000 men and boys massacred by Serb forces in 1995 are buried in a stark graveyard not 300 feet from the warehouse."


But let me tell you this: when you can't produce goods in factories because they're all blown up, you go back to growing stuff on the land for export. Bosnian GDP was only 9% ag back in 1989, but it's almost 20% now. So you sell whatever the hell you can raise, and you raise whatever FDI facilitates that connectivity to the outside world.


Does it work? My wife buys Bosnian raspberries in our local chain grocery story. There's now enough connectivity for raspberries to make it all the way from war-devastated Bosnia to our little island in New England.


That's the good FDI can do. But you have to grab it when you can. Laos right now is attracting all sorts of FDI and attention from mining companies. Surprising? It is when you realize that:



This little, landlocked country has never been a gold mine for foreign investors.


It has fewer than seven million consumers, no railroads and only a few paved highways. Its economy is managed by aging Communists. Worst of all, it is honeycombed with unexploded bombs from the Vietnam War.


But thanks to a global boom in commodity prices, Laos is starting to look good to the world's mining companies.


Who is driving that boom? China. China is helping to bring capitalism and FDI to Laos.


How about that for a domino theory?


How would my new favorite nutcase Alex Jones explain that one away as part of the "globalist/communist conspiracy"?


Let me beat him to the punch: "Our side is winning! Our side is winning! Our side is winning!"


Which side, you ask?


Hmmmmm. Damn! Those old labels just don't work anymore.


What's a ditto-head to do?

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