Cleary, the terrorist attack in Madrid was impressive, not just in its destruction and multiplicity of effects, but in its timing. In many ways, it was a preemptive strike designed to topple a government which had stuck its neck out to support the U.S-led coalition that had successfully removed Saddam Hussein and his regime from power in Iraq. Its message was simple and direct: pull out of the coalition or we will continue to target you. The al Qaeda message traffic on this leading up to the attack was quite explicit: we need to target this election.

The surprise winners of the Spanish national elections were the Socialists, who seemed as shocked at this unexpected turn of events as the center-right party they ousted. Everyone knows that the Spanish public overwhelming opposed the governmentís decision to join in the Iraq coalition, and yet most experts expected Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznarís party to remain firmly in power. Pre-3/11 polls showed the Popular Party to be just that, but the terrorist strikes apparently set off a seismic shift in the voting.

To me, thatís a real System Perturbation: a dozen backpack bombs buys al Qaeda a national election in one of the most advanced economic powers in the Core: small investment, big return. But the real extent of this System Perturbation is not yet known, because clearly the attack was meant to perturb political rule sets far beyond Spain, a key pillar of Old Europe. The 3/11 attacks are meant to drive a wedge between the Old Core pillars of Western Europe and the United States. They warned, in effect, that to follow the U.S. lead in this global war on terrorism is to invite catastrophic terrorism on your soil.

I am reminded of the Monty Python skit where the Mafioso tries to threaten the commanding officer of a military base: ìNice place you got here. Sure would be a shame if it caught on fire.î The parodied goal there was, of course, protection money. With Europe, al Qaedaís goal is disconnectionófrom the U.S., from the multinational effort to rehabilitate Iraq, and from the Middle East as a whole. In effect, theyíve told Europe, ìNice union you got here. Sure would be a shame if it caught on fire.î

There are roughly a dozen national elections scheduled across Europe over the next couple of years, but the biggest upcoming target of opportunity isóof courseóthe Olympic Games in Greece, a Seam State long derided for its lax efforts on stemming terrorism. Already, U.S. athletes have floated the notion of boycotting unless certain security considerations are better handled by the Greeks, who frankly are so behind in their overall construction effort that security experts are naturally worried about their ability to focus on the little things that separate a secure site from one not so secure.

Two countries to watch in coming weeks and months with regard to any ripple effect from Spainís about face are Italy, where similar popular sentiments abound and the PMís position isóalmost by historical definitionósomewhat dicey. Then thereís Poland, whose military leadership of a truly international force in Iraq is a real political and diplomatic stretch for them, since Warsaw is not used to engaging in such prominent leadership overseas. More specifically, the Poles had hoped the Spanish would up their role in the coalition unit, allowing them to quietly recede in terms of leadership. Now with the new Madrid government openly threatening to pull out, Warsaw could get panicky, although early indications are that they greatly desire to appear strong and steadfast.

With Old Europe seemingly wobbling, al Qaeda might well look to target the last of the trio of Old Core pillars, Japan. Thereís no need to conduct terrorism on their soil, now that Japan has gone through with the very difficult decision to send troops into harmís way in Iraq. So just about any reasonably successful strike against Japanese soldiers is guaranteed to register asóand you should get used to hearing this phraseóìthat nationís biggest single case of combat casualties since World War II.î That was the case for Italy when they lost roughly a dozen and a half personnel a while back in Iraq. It may sound like a stunning threshold, but it isnít. It just says that, except for the U.S., the Old Core pillars of Western Europe and Japan are so far removed from their warfighting past that any loss of life is a historical novelty sure to shock the populace.

Itís that sort of vast gulf in experience that al Qaedaís terror network is targeting right now. Bin Laden had long believed that just one Black Hawk down was enough to scare off the Americans (based on the Somalia experience), and heís discovered just how wrong that impression becomes in a post-9/11 world. But such calculations are far more reasonable for an Italy, Spain, and maybe even a Poland.

What does this say for the United States? It says that a ìbloody noseî strategy may well work for al Qaeda with many Old Core states, and perhaps some of the smaller New Core states as well, like Poland. So rather than spend our time trying to figure out what it will take to keep Old Core allies along for the ride, maybe the U.S. should focus more on what it takes to win the significant support of such New Core pillars as Russia, India, and China, all of whom are far less squeamish about both inflicting and suffering ìsignificantî combat casualties.

With the al Qaeda network now targeting soft targets across Iraq in a strong attempt to scare off anyone from the outside seeking to forge new economic ties between themselves and the long-isolated Iraqi people, a strong display of commitment by major New Core powers could have a profound demonstration effect. In my mind, the biggest diplomatic loss America has suffered to date in its efforts to internationalize the military presence in Iraq was when the Indian parliament basically said no to providing 17,000 peacekeepers a while back. If we were to get such strong displays of commitment from India, Russia and China, it would be far harder for wobbling European states to excuse themselves from the fight.

Recent setbacks like Madridís 3/11 and the massive hotel bombing in Baghdad play into President Bushís desire to campaign as a war president, a strategy that, if it doesnít backfire with the American public, is certain to isolate America further in a Core that desperately wants to see a global war on terrorism waged within the context of everything else and not just the American presidential election.