■"A Victory, But Little Is Gained: Falluja aside, the U.S. must lower its goals in Iraq," op-ed by Daryl G. Press and Benjamin Valentino, New York Times, 17 November 2004, p. A29.

■"The Sunni Angle: Iraq's elections mustn't bypass an embittered and radicalized minority," op-ed by Noah Feldman, Wall Street Journal, 16 November 2004, p. A24.

■"Armored Forces Blast Their Way Into Rebel Nest: Last Falluja Stronghold; American Troops Are Also Facing Fresh Unrest Elsewhere in Iraq," by Dexter Filkins and Robert F. Worth, New York Times, 14 November 2004, p. A1.

■"Calling All Troops, And Then Some, in Iraq," by Eric Schmitt, New York Times, 14 November 2004, p. WK4.

■"Fallujah's lesson: Don't be fooled by quick win: Battle's nearly over, but war's end not in sight," by John Diamond, Steve Komarow and Tom Squitieri, USA Today, 12-14 November 2004, p. A1.

■"Ethnic Rivalries Still Bitter in Balkans: Kosovo, Bosnia Sharply Divided; Macedonians Fear Vote May Spark Violence," by Daniel Williams, Washington Post, 6 November 2004, p. A18.

Our brave troops prevail in Falluja, but what do we win exactly? The insurgency shifts its efforts elsewhere, although it remains fundamentally a creature of the Sunni Triangle. So as the elections draw near, what should be our goals?

I was asked by Alex Steffens of WorldChanging about the future of Iraq. I replied that it was probably as bright as Yugoslavia's future. He got my point. There isn't any Yugoslavia any more, and there probably shouldn't be an Iraq anymore.

To me, that's not lowering our goals in Iraq, but rewarding those portions of Iraq that are ready to embrace the future. Noah Feldman may disagree, but I think the whole point of the elections should be to benefit those parts of Iraq that have embraced the notion of federalism, while punishing those that do not. Remember our Civil War. Well, that's how it worked then too, until the South gave up.

That isn't going to happen in the Sunni Triangle any time soon, and that's why the triangle is where the vast bulk of our troops are now. Check out the maps on troop employment across Iraq: we are thin in the north and thinner still in the south, with the large majority crammed into the deadly triangle. I say, reward those areas that can police their own better and work together, while not pretending that this election can function as anything real for those parts of Iraq lost to non-stop violence right now.

The anger and violence that now grips the Triangle won't disappear overnight, any more than it did in Bosnia or Kosovo. It takes a long time for that enmity to die away (remember how strong the KKK was in the south for all those decades following the Civil War?). We need to be realistic. That's not betraying the Iraqi people, because there are no Iraqi peopleójust three tribes living in the Yugoslavia of the Middle East.