The succession is well underway in NorKo
Thursday, July 22, 2010 at 12:08AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in China, Citation Post, Koreas, US

FT full-page "analysis" on recent going-ons in NorKo, as bodies continue to wash up in this succession crisis.

Gist:  Kim Jong Il is clearing out his politburo to stock it with loyalists for his son, Kim Jong-eun, the "young general" (as he is now touted) who needs military "victories" to prove his worth--hence the recent sinking of the SouKo warship.

But since all the major players (SouKo, China, US) are loath to confront Kim on what will likely become a lengthy pattern of increasingly provocations, we should expect them to continue for quite some time.  

And with the ludicrous public promise of making NorKo a "mighty and prosperous nation" by 2012 hanging out there, foreign demons will have to be slain to explain the inevitable shortfall.

The only real variable in the equation is China becoming unhappy enough with these shenanigans to stop using its UN Security Council veto to shield the regime.  Other than that, we're waiting on the Romanian scenario, by which a cabal of senior NorKo officials move against Kim Jong-eun once the old man dies.

Article originally appeared on Thomas P.M. Barnett (https://thomaspmbarnett.com/).
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