Keeping the West-to-East shift in perspective
Friday, December 3, 2010 at 12:01AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett in Citation Post, global economy

FT full-pager analysis exploring West-to-East economic shift.

First cool point from the charts above:  the rise of the East is merely a resumption of history disrupted by the West's sudden embrace of industrialization and colonialization (the Great Divergence begin in the 19th century healed by the Great Convergence of the 21st century).

Good point raised:  don't conflate China's rise with Asia's, because the latter's been rising - in sequence - for quite some time.  So it's Japan's rise, followed by South Korea's and the other Tigers' rise, now followed by China's rise, to be followed long-term by India's rise (remember, it adds 300m workers through 2050 while China loses 100m).  

Other cool point:  Remember that all this shifting occurs in an expanding pie.  Today the global economy is about $58T.  By the time China catches the U.S. in GDP, we're talking a global GDP more in the $150T range. As the Chairman of the London Stock Exchange (Chris Gibson-Smith) puts it, "And if you can't find your place in a $150,000bn economy, well, shame on you."

His line reminded me of the Dodo birds' taunting chant in one of the "Ice Age" movies:  "And if you're not prepared, well then, doom on you!  Doom On You!  DOOM ON YOU! . . ."

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