Another reason to be nervous
Wednesday, February 11, 2009 at 1:28AM
Thomas P.M. Barnett

ARTICLE: In Shift, Chinese Move More Money Overseas, By KEITH BRADSHER, New York Times, February 2, 2009

One is tempted to automatically declare this a bad sign, but since motivations remain unclear, we can't be sure.

On the face of it, I find this trend both natural and disturbing: natural in the form of a rising middle class wanting "preferred" foreign goods (very common during new-found wealth) but disturbing in that it works somewhat against stimulation (sure, it stimulates the world but less so China). Plus, if it is truly a flight of fear, you gotta remember: local money always leaves first before a crash.

In sum, China's so big and so strong in production and--yet--at the same time so thin and weak in relative domestic consumerism that it really feels like uncharted territory.

But the similarities to late 1920s America are frightening, and I'm not somebody who easily freaks.

(Thanks: Terry Collier)

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